Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
924 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2006

.UPDATE...SOME COUNTIES WERE CLEARED FROM THE SEVERE TSTM WATCH
BUT HAVE KEPT MOST TO KEEP ON SAFE SIDE. LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS
AT 30-35 KNOTS AND CAPABLE OF REGENERATING STRONGER STORMS BUT
APPEARS UNLIKELY. MAY DROP THE REMAINING WATCH NEXT HOUR.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IS STUBBORNLY REMAINING WEST WITH WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH DVL AND JMS. THINK IT MIGHT GET A BIT OF A
SHOVE SOUTHEAST AFTER THE CENTRAL SD SHORTWAVE (AS VIEWED ON WATER
VAPOR LOOP) MOVES BY. BUT EXTRAPOLATION OF THE SHORTWAVE DOESN/T
MOVE TO FFM UNTIL 10Z SO WILL SLOW DOWN INITIAL NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. ONCE IT DOES THE 850 MB TROUGH WILL OPEN MORE
TO A PROGRESSIVE WAVE AND REDUCE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER BRIEFLY
THU MORNING. BUT RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH IT BACK ABOVE 1.5 INCHES
ACROSS THE SOUTH...MAKING HEAVY RAIN STILL A POSSIBILITY THU NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 251 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2006)

SHORT TERM (THRU SAT)...MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME RESOLVING SFC
FEATURES AND PLACEMENTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STAYING WITH
CONTINUITY AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE THE PRUDENT CHOICE UNTIL MORE
CLARITY CAN BE ATTAINED.

LOW PRESSURE SITUATED NEAR KMBG WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING
TO THE NE WILL SLOWLY TILT TO THE NE TONITE. ONE SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING THRU N CENTRAL ND ATTM HAS FIRED OFF A FEW STORMS ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE CAP DENOTED BY THE 9C ISOTHERM AT H7. AS CLOUD
DEBRIS CONTINUES TO WANE THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM WY...MORE STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FIRE SHOULD WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES WITHOUT THE PRESENCE
OF A LLJ.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON THURS WITH THE PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY
OF THE LOW IN SD AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS. THE GFS IS PREFERRED DUE
TO ITS TRACK RECORD OF LATE AND INITIALIZATION AT 12Z. THERE WILL
BE AN E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL ND INTO NRN MN WHERE
STORMS COULD FIRE AT PRETTY MUCH ANYTIME DURING THE DAY.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THURS NITE INTO FRI WILL BE THE PRIME
TIME FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND THE BEST SETUP
FOR SEVERE WX. AS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH A COUPLED
JET STRUCTURE MOVING OVERHEAD...ONE OR MORE MCSS MAY FORM IN
SOUTH CENTRAL ND AND MOVE EAST. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES EXCEED
50KTS WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORMS TO
PRODUCE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ONE FACTOR THAT MAY LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THE K INDEX. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH VALUES CLOSE TO 50. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
RISE TO NEAR 2 INCHES HINTING THAT ANY STORMS MAY BE EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT. THE
NAM AND GFS DISAGREE MIGHTILY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH...HAVING
BIG IMPACTS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE PRECIP WILL BE SHUNTED. THE GFS
HAD BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT PUSHING ANY PRECIP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MN OVERNIGHT FRI LEADING TO A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER START TO THE
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (SUN THRU WED)...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN CARVING
OUT BROAD MID LEVEL EAST COAST TROUGH FOLLOWING RELATIVELY ZONAL
FLOW EARLY IN LONG RANGE. INITIAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WHICH STARTS THIS PATTERN SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN ENERGY
REMAINS NORTH OF BORDER HOWEVER WITH BOUNDARY THROUGH FA WILL
CONTINUE LOW POPS. NEXT WAVE LOOKS TO MAKE PASSAGE MIDWEEK.
TEMPERATURES LOOKS SEASONAL AND WILL WATCH FOR POSSIBLE COOLING
MID WEEK WITH NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

GV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
622 AM CDT WED AUG 16 2006

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-171130-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
622 AM CDT WED AUG 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN. BY LATE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF A FARGO TO BAUDETTE LINE. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WEAKEN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS
HAVE A GOOD POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL THREAT ACROSS
THE REGION. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF A SURFACE FRONT AND WILL BE MONITORED
FOR UPCOMING OUTLOOKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT.

TG

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
915 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TORNADO          9 W ROSS                48.91N 96.12W
08/16/2006                   ROSEAU             MN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NWS STORM SURVEY CONFIRMED AN F0 TORNADO WITH AN
            INTERMITTENT 3 MILE TRACK FROM 9W ROSS TO 6WSW ROSS.

&&

DKELLENB