Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Grand Forks, ND

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 120716
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
215 AM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

NDC019-120745-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0162.000000T0000Z-060812T0745Z/
CAVALIER ND-
215 AM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN CAVALIER COUNTY...

AT 213 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THE STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES
NORTHEAST OF LANGDON...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  OLGA BY 230 AM CDT

DURING THUNDERSTORMS YOU SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING. DO NOT
STAND BY WINDOWS. DO NOT USE TELEPHONES OR ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4882 9864 4863 9853 4879 9796 4901 9796

$$

HOPPES

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 120732
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
231 AM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

NDC019-120745-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0162.000000T0000Z-060812T0745Z/
CAVALIER ND-
231 AM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 AM CDT
FOR EASTERN CAVALIER COUNTY...

AT 230 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THE STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES
WEST OF OLGA...OR 13 MILES EAST OF LANGDON...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND TORNADOES ARE ALL
POSSIBLE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SEEK SHELTER IN A REINFORCED
BUILDING IMMEDIATELY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4887 9846 4861 9843 4873 9795 4896 9796

$$

HOPPES

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 120751
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
251 AM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

NDC019-120801-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0162.000000T0000Z-060812T0745Z/
CAVALIER ND-
251 AM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN CAVALIER COUNTY
EXPIRED AT 245 AM CDT...

AT 249 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF OLGA...OR 20 MILES EAST OF
LANGDON...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SEVERE. SO
THE WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 245 AM CDT. 

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4887 9846 4861 9843 4873 9795 4896 9796

$$

HOPPES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
858 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006

.UPDATE...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER
THE CWA. WSR-88D REGIONAL MOSAIC SHOWS AN MCS CURRENTLY IN
NORTHWEST ND EXTENDING NORTH INTO SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN.
CURRENT THINKING IS THE MCS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE AREA
BY 04Z ALONG THE 500MB SHORTWAVE. A SECOND AREA OF HIGHER POPS IN
THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER BASIN IS SOMEWHAT SUSPECT...MODEL
ARE INCONSISTENT IN REGARDS TO THE LOW LEVEL JET AND QPF.
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE LIKELY TO FORM ALONG THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE 850MB LOW LEVEL JET WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION. REDUCED QPF ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND BUMPED IT
UP IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO REFLECT EXPECTED CONVECTIVE PATTERNS.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 222 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006)

SHORT TERM...
FAIRLY COMPLEX/CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNFOLD THIS
WEEKEND...AND THUNDERSTORM EVOLUTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
VERY CHALLENGING TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEVELOPING
SW FLOW TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN OVERALL EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED. I PREFER THE GFS QPF AND MCS
EVOLUTION TONIGHT/SAT NIGHT...SO WILL FOLLOW.

FOR TONIGHT...WE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FAIRLY RAPIDLY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN ND AHEAD OF SFC BOUNDARY AND COMPACT
SHORTWAVE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MOVE NORTHEAST AND BUILD EAST
AFTER DARK INTO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. SHOWALTERS WILL FALL
TO AROUND -7C INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER 06Z...WITH MAIN CONVERGENCE
NEAR 850MB FOCUSSED INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT. THERE MAY
BE SEVERAL MCS/S THAT MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS
12Z...WITH A THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS AND SOME HAIL. DOWNDRAFT CAPE
(DCAPE) INCREASES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER
06Z...SO ANY MCS THAT CAN DEVELOP A DEEP ENOUGH COLD POOL SHOULD
PROPAGATE INTO REGION WITH THE THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE. SPC HAS A
SLIGHT RISK OVERNIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE. 850MB MLCAPE RISES OVER 2000 J/KG INTO SOUTHEAST
ND LATE TONIGHT...COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS APPROACHING 2
INCHES COULD ALSO MEAN SOME HEAVY RAIN AS WELL. WILL MENTION
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAIN NEAR SLIGHT RISK AREA TONIGHT.
EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYERED SHEAR WILL ALSO RISE TO AROUND 40-45KT
LATER TONIGHT INTO WESTERN AREAS...SO THIS SHOULD AID EMBEDDED
ELEVATED SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF OR WITHIN AN MCS THAT CAN MOVE INTO
REGION.

FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT...EXPECT A POTENTIAL SEVERE MCS TO BE ONGOING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE
SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING IN WAKE OF MCS...SO EXPECT SOME SUN BY
LATE MORNING. SFC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ND BY SAT
EVENING...WITH A WARM FRONT OR SFC LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST SD.
CAP WILL WEAKEN AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 21Z ON SAT...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AROUND 50KT...AND MLCAPES AROUND 3000
J/KG. THIS SHOULD BE AIDED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION A FACTOR WITH RECENT RAINS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...AND ANY RAIN THAT FALLS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF UPPER SPEED MAX. THEREFORE...WILL MENTION SEVERE IN ALL
AREAS FROM 21Z SAT- 12ZSUN...WITH MCS LIKELY SAT NIGHT IN SOUTHERN
AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT HERE AND PRECIPITABLE
WATERS NEAR OR OVER 2 INCHES. IF TONIGHTS MCS PRODUCES 1-2 INCHES
OF WIDESPREAD RAIN...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION. WITH THE VERY DRY SUMMER OVERALL THOUGH...FFG GUIDANCE IS
VERY HIGH AND FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON ANY FLOOD HEADLINES. UPPER FLOW
WILL PARALLEL SFC BOUNDARY SAT NIGHT AS WELL...AND TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THINGS CLOSELY.

FOR SUNDAY...MAIN UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST AND FINALLY DRY
REGION OUT BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER BAND OF
DEFORMATION TYPE THUNDER SUNDAY MORNING MOVING FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAIN VORT LOBE. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER ON
SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP AROUND.

FOR MONDAY...REGION WILL BE DRY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT...AND TEMPS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM (TUES-SAT)...
PRETTY GOOD CONTINUITY IN LONG RANGE MODELS IN THAT IT SHOWS HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH DROPS OVER THE AREA MON-TUE MOVING EAST WITH RETURN
FLOW SETTING UP ON WEDNESDAY.  NEXT FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF CHC TSRA WITH
IT FROM WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT.  WILL MAINTAIN DRY FCST FOR FRIDAY
ATTM...BUT POPS MIGHT HAVE BE ADDED AT SOME POINT IF SYSTEM SLOWS
DOWN FURTHER.  12Z GFS HINTS AT THIS.  TEMPS APPEAR NR NORMAL.

AVIATION...
TOUGH ONE WITH LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND
MUCH OF ERN ND.  SOME CLEARING NOTED MOVING NORTHWARD AND SOME
BREAKS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. HOPING LOW LEVEL WINDS WHICH WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING WILL HELP BREAK UP THE CLOUDS.  BUT IF
NOT...LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER MOST OF THE NIGHT AS 850 MB LAYER
WARMS OVERNIGHT.  PLAYED IT OPTIMISTICALLY FOR NOW.  KEPT CHC OF
THUNDER IN THE LATE NIGHT AS THUNDERSTORMS OUT WEST WILL MOVE EAST
AND ARRIVE IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AFTER 09Z.  BEMIDJI WILL NOT BE
AFFECTED BY ANY PCPN TIL AFTER 12Z.  LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE BACK INTO
BEMIDJI IF AREA DOES NOT CLEAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

KAISER/AYD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
654 AM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-121200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
654 AM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. IN ADDITION
SOME AREAS MAY SEE HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. AS THE
COLD FRONT SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
MORE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. ALSO AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED WARM FRONT FROM NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL ALSO BE THE FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

VOELKER