Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1100 AM CDT SAT AUG 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION. WHEN LOOKING
AT THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED
IN CENTRAL ND...WITH A TROF EXTENDING TO THE LOW IN CANADA BETWEEN
MOT AND DVL. KMVX SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE N TIER COUNTIES IN NE ND. WITH CAP STILL HOLDING OVER AREA YET
THIS MORNING...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING YET...BUT ALL
INDICATIONS STILL ARE THERE THAT IT SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...JUST NEEDED TO EXPAND CURRENT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES A LITTLE MORE N AND E FROM WHAT WAS PRIORLY FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH MINIMAL CHANGES
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

NG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
641 AM CDT SAT AUG 5 2006

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-061145-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
641 AM CDT SAT AUG 5 2006

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS OVER 60 MPH LIKELY FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR A LANGDON TO DEVILS LAKE TO JAMESTOWN
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE EAST TOWARD THE RED RIVER DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO MINNESOTA LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

INITIALLY THE STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND MAY BECOME
SUPERCELLS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THE STORMS WILL LIKELY
FORM A SQUALL LINE AS THEY APPROACH THE RED RIVER AND THEN MOVE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE VALLEY INTO MINNESOTA. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. NOT EVERYONE WILL
EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN IN
PAST EPISODES THIS SUMMER. ALL RESIDENTS OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
ALERT AND PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL END IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA BY
5 PM...AND IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY 8 PM...AND IN MINNESOTA
LAKES COUNTRY BY 11 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
ON FRIDAY. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AT THIS TIME IS UKNOWN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RIDDLE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1030 AM CDT SAT AUG 5 2006

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-051800-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
1030 AM CDT SAT AUG 5 2006

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
OVER 60 MPH LIKELY FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR A LANGDON TO DEVILS LAKE TO JAMESTOWN IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS
THEY MOVE EAST TOWARD THE RED RIVER DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND THEN INTO MINNESOTA LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

INITIALLY THE STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND MAY BECOME
SUPERCELLS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THE STORMS WILL LIKELY
FORM A SQUALL LINE AS THEY APPROACH THE RED RIVER AND THEN MOVE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE VALLEY INTO MINNESOTA. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. NOT EVERYONE WILL
EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN IN
EARLIER EPISODES THIS SUMMER. ALL RESIDENTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA SHOULD BE ALERT AND PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THEIR AREA.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD END IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA BY
5 PM...AND IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY 8 PM...AND IN MINNESOTA LAKES
COUNTRY BY 11 PM.

GUST/RIDDLE