Severe Thunderstorm Warning 132, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1059 AM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006

.UPDATE...STILL NOT AN EASY FORECAST TODAY EVEN WITH MANY
CHALLENGES INCLUDING CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND FIRE WX CONCERNS. AS OF
15Z...WARM FRONT HAS SET UP FROM W-E ACROSS THE CENTRAL FA. STRONG
850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER COMBINED
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 50-60KT OF DEEP LAYERED SHEAR HAVE
COMBINED FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. AS 850MB JET SLOWLY SHIFTS E
THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT THIS AREA OF STORMS TO SHIFT E ALSO. WILL
INCREASE POPS JUST ALONG CANADIAN BORDER FOR TODAY A BIT. WITH
DEEP LAYERED SHEAR SO STRONG WOULD EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO BE AT
LEAST NEAR SEVERE ALL DAY.

SECONDARY STRONGER AREA OF 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION NOW ACROSS SE
ND WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLD THUNDER NOW OCCURRING
SHOULD LIFT NE ALONG WITH THIS FORCING. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
POCKET OF DRIER 850MB AIR WHICH IS TO LIFT INTO THE S FA TODAY AND
END THE ISOLD THUNDER BY MID-AFTERNOON. CURRENT POPS LOOK GOOD FOR
THIS...BUT WILL EXTEND THE ISOLD THREAT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY.

12Z RUC/GFS LIFT WARM FRONT N OF BORDER BY 00Z SAT...WHILE 12Z NAM
KEEPS WARM FRONT STATIONARY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POSITION OF
THIS FRONT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE THREAT.

WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS SE ND. WITH POCKET
OF DRIER 850MB AIR MOVING INTO THIS REGION EXPECT SOME DRYING AT
THE SFC AS THIS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. NOT SURE TO WHAT DEGREE THIS
WILL OCCUR...BUT IF DEWPOINTS REACH NEAR 45F WITH TEMPS NEAR 90F
(RH 20%) AND WITH WINDS NEAR 25KTS FIRE WX CONDITIONS BECOME
CRITICAL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

TG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
639 AM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-051145-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
639 AM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WHILE A SEVERE STORM COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY TWO. A WARM
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR A DEVILS LAKE TO GRAND
FORKS TO BEMIDJI LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARM AND
MOIST AIR WILL OVERRIDE THE FRONT CAUSING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO OCCUR TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A
COMPLEX OF STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THEN OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT. THE CAUSE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER.

RIDDLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1025 AM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     HAIL             5 N WALHALLA            48.99N 97.92W
08/04/2006  E0.75 INCH       PEMBINA            ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PATRIAYD

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