Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Grand Forks, ND

000 
WWUS83 KFGF 160004
RFWFGF

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
704 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7PM CDT...

.SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO ABATE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN
RESPONSE TO FALLING TEMPERATURES.

MNZ001>003-014>017-022>024-027>032-040-160115-
/O.EXP.KFGF.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060416T0000Z/
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-RED LAKE-EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-
SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-
EAST BECKER-WILKIN-WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-
704 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

DIMINISHING WINDS COUPLED WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THUS THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT.

$$

BERG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
230 AM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH APPROACHING
SYSTEM AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

IN NEAR TERM CONCERN WILL BE ELEVATED T POTENTIAL. MOISTURE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED HOWEVER RUC INDICATING NARROW SW-NE ORIENTED 850MB THETA-E
RIDGE THROUGH FA ALONG WITH SUB ZERO SHOWALTER INDICES AND 50KT LOW
LEVEL JET THROUGH SD. WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP OVER FAR S AND N SO
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN LOW POP THREAT BASED ON ABOVE.

FOR REMAINDER OF DAY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS IT DOES LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED
WITH MAIN LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ASSOCIATED
TROUGH NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL/WESTERN DAKOTAS. SOME WEAK ELEVATED
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY OVER FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON IN BROAD
THETA-E RIDGE AND ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET. MAIN LIMITER LOOKS
TO BE MOISTURE AND CAPPING. FOR THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS
FROM VALLEY WEST. FARTHER EAST AIRMASS JUST LOOKS TOO DRY WITH ANY
MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF ABOVE 700 MB. WITH MORE SOLAR EXPECTED AND
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTING OVER FA WILL BE A WARM DAY AND WILL UP MAX
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.

SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVERNIGHT REACHING IA/NE BORDER BY
MORNING. WITH MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED
TO SOUTH HALF OF FA AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THAT.

CLOUDS AND COOLING COLUMN WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
EASTER AND WILL STAY ON COOL SIDE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. STILL NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT ON RAIN POTENTIAL SO WILL KEEP CONSISTENT AND AVOID
SEE-SAW.

GFS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK SYSTEM TAKING LOW TRACK FARTHER WEST WHICH
WOULD HAVE US BATTLING DRY EASTERLY FLOW. FAVORED DEFORMATION ZONE
PCPN SHIELD WOULD ALSO AFFECT AREAS TO OUR WEST. WILL MAINTAIN
CURRENT POPS HOWEVER WILL ADJUST CURRENT QPF DOWN A LITTLE. WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM COULD SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN
POTENTIAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN FLOODING CONCERNS NOW CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES WITH MAJOR/RECORD FLOODING POSSIBLE. AREAL
AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY. PLEASE
REFER TO BISFLSFGF AND BISFLWFGF FOR THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND
FLOOD WARNINGS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR GRAND FORKS...WALSH AND PEMBINA
     COUNTIES.
MN...AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR POLK...MARSHALL AND KITTSON
     COUNTIES.

&&

VOELKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
618 AM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-161130-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
618 AM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE MAINSTEM RED
RIVER AND SOME TRIBUTARIES...

...AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST COUNTIES IN THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND ALONG ITS
TRIBUTARIES REMAIN UNDER WATER DUE TO FLOODING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER UNTIL MID
MORNING. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND ALONG ITS
TRIBUTARIES WILL REMAIN UNDER WATER DUE TO FLOODING UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION TUESDAY CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK.  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

VOELKER