Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
858 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF THE SEVERE WATCH AND
TRIM NORTHWARD THE MORNING THUNDER. LITTLE ELSE ADJUSTED. WILL
HAVE TO CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IF EXPECTED CONVECTION
DEVELOPS MAINLY TONIGHT AND MAYBE SUNDAY. RADAR SHOWS A SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WELL IN EXCESS OF AN INCH FROM NEAR NEW
ROCKFORD TO WEST OF PEMBINA. WILL SEE HOW THE RED RIVER TRIBUTARIES
IN THAT AREA RESPOND THROUGH TODAY AS WELL. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
IS OTHERWISE RATHER HIGH ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL PROBABLY NOT
CONSIDER ONE ANYWHERE ELSE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 430 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006)

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN SHIFTS
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE ROCKIES-EASTERN US RESPECTIVELY BY TUE MORNING.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL ADD CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE SOUTH LATE AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES FROM AROUND AN INCH THIS
MORNING TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES SAT NIGHT.

RADAR SHOWING STRONG STORMS OVER NORTHWEST ZONES MOVING NORTHEAST
ABOUT 25 KNOTS. LIFTED INDICES REMAIN NEUTRAL OVER NORTHWEST ZONES
WITH MODEST SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE.

PROBLEM SAT NIGHT MAY BE FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN ZONES. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES TO BETTER THAN 12 G/KG OVER FORECAST AREA.
SOTRM MOTION WILL BE VERY FAST.

LONG TERM...
NO CHANGES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

GV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
715 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-281215-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
715 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT OVER ALL OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. ALSO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 3 PM
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THE PRODUCE
THE THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG A STALLED
COLD FRONT OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FOR SUNDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA OR WEST OF A LINE FROM BAUDETTE TO ELBOW LAKE MINNESOTA.
THE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAY GO INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

HOPPES

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