Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 AM EDT WED APR 19 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
CURRENT CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF MCN ALONG A MOISTURE
BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAWN AND BY THEN MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED. THE MCS OVER MO/IL/IN WILL
BEGIN TOPPING THE RIDGE AND START DRIFTING SOUTHEAST SHORTLY. THE
GFS AND NAM SEEM A BIT TOO FAST AS BY 06Z THEY HAVE IT IN KY.
HOWEVER BOTH MODELS BRING THE MCS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH JUST THE
EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA BEING AFFECTED BY THE MCS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OF THE MCS...CONVECTION IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA. CAPES THIS AFTERNOON REACH ABOVE 2000 ACROSS NORTH GA AND
LIFTED INDICES REACH -4 TO -6. SPC HAS ALL THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK
TODAY AND THAT LOOKS GOOD. A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT FROM THE THUNDER
THEN ANOTHER S/W MOVES INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A PROBLEM DUE
TO CLOUDS. ANY PLACE THAT SEES AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNSHINE WILL RISE
INTO THE 80S...HOWEVER THOSE THAT DO NOT SEE ANY SUNSHINE WILL SEE
TEMPS IN THE 70S. WILL GO WITH GFS MOS AS THERE SHOULD BE SOME
SUNSHINE TO PUSH OUR TEMPS INTO THE 80S TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE EAST
WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CLOUD SHIELD OF THE MCS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
A LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS PER THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. GFS HAS THE FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA
BY 18Z WHILE THE NAM IS SLOWER. WILL HOLD POPS ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE POPS THROUGH DAY 7
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES AND THE RELIABILITY OF THE GFS
THROUGH DAY 7. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH THE GFS POPS AND KEEP TEMPS AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATLANTA         83  63  79  62 /  30   5  30  20
ATHENS          78  58  81  60 /  40   5  30  20
GAINESVILLE     77  59  80  60 /  50  10  30  20
ROME            88  61  80  60 /  50  10  40  30
COLUMBUS        89  65  87  65 /  30   5  30  20
MACON           84  62  85  60 /  30   5  30  20

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
OVC008-OVC015 CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 13Z-15Z. EXPECTING TSRA
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE MCS NOW OVER IL/IN.
THIS STORM SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO MOVE SE TODAY INTO THE CAROLINAS
SO MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL BE AFFECTED. WINDS
STARTING OUT OF THE SE THIS MORNING TURNING W TO SW SHORTLY AFTER
DAY BREAK. EXPECT WINDS IN THE 6 TO 12 KT RANGE ALL DAY.
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIFTING
BY MID MORNING. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AFTER THAT EXCEPT IN
TSTMS.

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 AM EDT WED APR 19 2006

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-200945-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
740 AM EDT WED APR 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA THIS
MORNING WITH BEGIN MOVING SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...DIME TO NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA THIS
MORNING WITH BEGIN MOVING SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE HOWEVER...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...CONVECTION IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. INSTABILITY INDICES WILL BE GREATEST IN AREAS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE BUT GEORGIA WILL SEE CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON REACHING ABOVE 2000 AND LIFTED INDICES IN THE MINUS 4 TO
MINUS 6 RANGE. MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE WILL BE LIMITED TODAY SO
ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
938 AM EDT WED APR 19 2006

GAZ001>005-191430-
938 AM EDT WED APR 19 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
IN DADE...WALKER...WHITFIELD...CATOOSA AND MURRAY COUNTIES UNTIL
1030 AM EDT...

AT 938 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF TENNGA TO
10 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN...AND MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE ALERT AREAS. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS
INCLUDE FORT OGLETHORPE...COHUTTA...VARNELL...TENNGA...AND CRANDALL.