Severe Thunderstorm Warning 386, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
238 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST ONE FOR A WHILE. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL GA BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE A BREAK IN THE HI TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND POPS. TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO MID 90S BUT THE HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE CURRENT RADAR TREND SHOWS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL GA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. DIURNALLY INDUCED INSTABILITY INDICES ARE MARGINAL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CAPES IN THE 2500 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE AND LIS FROM
-3 TO -5. ALSO VERY HIGH PWS FROM 2 TO 2.5 INCHES EXIST OVER GA.
THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL GA THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING THE MAIN HAZARDS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
LIKELY IN THE STRONGER STORMS DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. WILL INCREASE POPS SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINING THE DOMINATE SYNOPTIC
FEATURE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE BIGGEST THREAT IN THE LONG TERM SEAMS TO BE WHERE T.S. CHRIS IS
GOING TO GO. RIGHT NOW CHRIS IS FORECAST TO STAY WELL AWAY FROM GA
AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. THE SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE WEAKEN IN THE SHORT TERM AND THEN STRENGTHENS AGAIN NEXT
WEEK AS IT CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND THE THE SERN U.S. WITH THIS IN
MIND WILL CONTINUE WITH DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA THROUGH DAY 7 WITH TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATLANTA         75  91  74  89 /  20  30  30  30
ATHENS          74  94  73  88 /  20  40  30  30
GAINESVILLE     73  90  73  86 /  30  40  20  30
ROME            74  94  74  92 /  20  30  20  30
COLUMBUS        77  94  76  93 /  20  30  30  20
MACON           74  94  74  93 /  30  40  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  71  91  72  89 /  20  30  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    70  94  72  89 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BALDWIN...BANKS...
BARROW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CLARKE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...
EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...
JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MADISON...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...NEWTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...SCHLEY...
SUMTER...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...
WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1112 AM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-050930-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1112 AM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALSO...HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL
WEAKEN TODAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND INTO NORTH GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ALSO...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 100 TO 110 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

.DISCUSSION...
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NEARS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON...THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL BECOME UNSTABLE. CAPE VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2000 TO 2500 THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AFTER 1 PM AND CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

ALSO...SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S COMBINING WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO 102 WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX
VALUES OVER 100. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
SEE THE LATEST STATEMENTS ON THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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