Freeze Watch 2, NWS Atlanta, GA

Baldwin County, GA, Banks County, GA, Barrow County, GA, Bartow County, GA, Bibb County, GA, Bleckley County, GA, Butts County, GA, Carroll County, GA, Catoosa County, GA, Chattooga County, GA, Cherokee County, GA, Clarke County, GA, Clayton County, GA, Cobb County, GA, Coweta County, GA, Crawford County, GA, Dade County, GA, Dawson County, GA, DeKalb County, GA, Douglas County, GA, Emanuel County, GA, Fannin County, GA, Fayette County, GA, Floyd County, GA, Forsyth County, GA, Fulton County, GA, Gilmer County, GA, Glascock County, GA, Gordon County, GA, Greene County, GA, Gwinnett County, GA, Hall County, GA, Hancock County, GA, Haralson County, GA, Heard County, GA, Henry County, GA, Houston County, GA, Jackson County, GA, Jasper County, GA, Jefferson County, GA, Johnson County, GA, Jones County, GA, Lamar County, GA, Laurens County, GA, Lumpkin County, GA, Madison County, GA, Meriwether County, GA, Monroe County, GA, Morgan County, GA, Murray County, GA, Newton County, GA, Oconee County, GA, Oglethorpe County, GA, Paulding County, GA, Peach County, GA, Pickens County, GA, Pike County, GA, Polk County, GA, Putnam County, GA, Rockdale County, GA, Spalding County, GA, Taliaferro County, GA, Towns County, GA, Treutlen County, GA, Troup County, GA, Twiggs County, GA, Union County, GA, Upson County, GA, Walker County, GA, Walton County, GA, Warren County, GA, Washington County, GA, White County, GA, Whitfield County, GA, Wilkes County, GA, Wilkinson County, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
845 PM EST SAT MAR 25 2006

.UPDATE...
HAVE DECIDED...BASED ON RUC AND NAM SFC TEMPS...TO GO AHEAD AND
EXTEND THE FREEZE WARNING TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA. BOTH
THE RUC AND NAM12 SHOW THE 31F LINE DOWN TO NEAR THE FL BORDER
BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. GIVEN THAT MANY OF THESE AREAS WERE AT OR BELOW 32
THIS MORNING...FELT IT BEST TO JUST GO AHEAD AND COVER THE ENTIRE
CWA WITH THE FREEZE WARNING. GRANTED...LOCATIONS LIKE CSG...VDI AND
OTHER AIRPORT LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 33-34 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT SHELTERED LOCATIONS WILL DROP BELOW 32. IN THE NORTH...A
HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY AT MANY LOCATIONS WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S AT SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ATL HOLD
AT 33 OR SO...BUT THAT IS USUALLY AN ANOMALY ANYWAY. LOWERED MAX
TEMPS FOR SUN JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON LATEST MAV/GFS
ANALYSIS AS WELL. COLD ADVECTION WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
SUN AT LEAST. IN ADDITION...WITH THE COLD SFC HIGH PRETTY MUCH
CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE AREA MON MORNING...WOULD EXPECT TEMPS NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN AREAS. GUIDANCE
SHOWS LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 29-32 DEGREE RANGE BY 09Z-13Z MON
MORNING. THUS...HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR MON MORNING FOR ALL
EXCEPT THE EXTREME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

IN THE EXTENDED...LATEST GFS SHOWS A COMPLETE LACK OF INSTABILITY
FOR THU...SO HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF TSRA FOR THIS PERIOD. ON
THE OTHER HAND...INSTABILITY IS INDICATED FOR FRI-SAT...WITH
DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP TOWARD 60 IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS...LIS IN THE 0
TO -1 RANGE...AND AT LEAST SOME SEMBLANCE OF A FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA...HAVE RETAINED TSRA FOR FRI AND ADDED TSRA FOR SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
WINTER LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...THEN A MORE SPRING
LIKE PATTERN EVOLVES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MOST OF THE
AREA WELL BELOW ZERO AT 850MB AND CONTINUING NW-N SFC WINDS AT
5-10KTS. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF SUN. BY
MON...THE LARGE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST AND THE AREA COMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SHORT WAVE RIDGE. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE COLD SFC HIGH WHICH
HAS DOMINATED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MON AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL PASS BY TO THE NE OF THE AREA EARLY
TUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME...THEN STALL ACROSS S GA AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL AND OLD CANADIAN SFC HIGH MOVES OFF EAST COAST OF FL.
VERY LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHRA
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW POPS FOR THE TUE
MORN LOOK GOOD. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NW EARLY IN THE
DAY...WITH JUST ISOLD CHANCE IN THE SE PART OF THE CWA. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON WED...HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT. INSTABILITY STILL LACKING AND SFC MOISTURE STILL NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO ONCE AGAIN WOULD EXPECT JUST SOME SHRA ACTIVITY
AS THIS SYNOPTIC SITUATION OCCURS. THU LEAVES THE AREA BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...BUT IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. DYNAMICS ARE WEAK AND
INSTABILITY STILL LACKING. HOWEVER...THE SFC MOISTURE SITUATION IS
IMPROVING. WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...ANY WEAK RIPPLES IN
THE UPPER FLOW WOULD LIKE PRODUCE SOME SHRA BY THIS TIME. THE PERIOD
FROM FRI-SUN APPEARS QUITE UNSETTLED AS A FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NW AND CREEPS THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND.
INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR TSRA ACTIVITY...BUT SEVERE DOES
NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME. EACH RUN OF THE GFS PUSHES THE BEST
DYNAMICS AND UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW FURTHER NORTH
AWAY FROM THE CWA. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN THE TIMING AND REDUCE THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE...BUT LEAVE THE AREA WITH A LONGER
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND TSRA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUN AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. MIN RH VALUES MARGINAL NEAR THE 25 PERCENT LEVEL FOR 5-6 HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL GA...MAINLY SOUTH OF LGC-MCN-AGS LINE. WIND
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET. MID SHIFT MAY NEED TO UPDATE THIS TO A
RED FLAG WARNING. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MON AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS MUCH OF THE PERIOD
FROM 18Z-23Z FEATURES MIN RH VALUES OF 25 PERCENT OR LESS ACROSS THE
CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT LAYER OF BKN STRATO CU CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE SOME ACROSS TAF
SITES BY SUNSET...WITH FEW TO SCT CLOUDS PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH. MAY SEE SCT TO BKN STRATO CU ACROSS
THE AREA AGAIN BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SKIRTS ACROSS
THE AREA. VSBY UNRESTRICTED AS LOWER LEVELS REMAIN DRY. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOME AND LOSE GUSTINESS BY
00Z...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 6 TO 10KT RANGE TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOOK FOR SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15KT RANGE SUNDAY.
&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...
DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...
TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...
WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR BALDWIN...BANKS...
BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FANNIN...FAYETTE...
FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...
MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...
NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...
PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TOWNS...
TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...
DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...
PEACH...PIKE...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

19/49

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