Severe Thunderstorm Warning 292, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1143 AM CST MON NOV 6 2006

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS, ENDING WHEN A WEAK COOL FRONT
PASSES. SWLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS WILL BECOME NLY BY 21Z AT THE TAF
SITES, THEN DECREASE IN SPEED AFTER 03Z. MVFR CIGS IN THE HILL
COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS WILL LIFT TO VFR WITH VFR SKIES
ELSW, THEN CLOUDS DECREASING TO MOSTLY SKC AFTER 03Z ALL AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1051 AM CST MON NOV 6 2006)

UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS MORNING, SO HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES AND
GRIDS TO REFLECT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING
A BIT HIGHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE IMPACT ON THE
ZONES ARE LESS NOTICEABLE WITH SOME AREAS ACTUALLY SHOWING A
REDUCTION IN POPS. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS FROM THE
W/NW WILL HELP LIMIT THE POSSIBILITY OF NEW CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES DESPITE A BALMY 70 DEGREE DEWPOINT AT UVA AT 10
AM. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR AREAS BY
AROUND 2 PM WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINING POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE MINIMAL DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE OFFSET BY A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE 10-15 KFT LAYER
DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE W/NW WITH TIME. FORECAST TEMPS AND WINDS
LOOK GOOD ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 606 AM CST MON NOV 6 2006)

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED THRU 16Z.  SCATTERED SHRA
AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND EAST OF AN AUS TO SAT
LINE THRU 16Z...AND MOVING TO ALONG AND EAST OF A GYB
TO CUERO LINE BY 18Z. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND
5 THSD FT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
16Z...BECOMING VFR AFTER 21Z AND SHRA AND TSRA MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 406 AM CST MON NOV 6 2006)

DISCUSSION...
NICE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH BEXAR
COUNTY THIS MORNING. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOIST AIR AS THE UPPER LEVELS DESTABILIZE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH . THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH TEXAS TODAY PUSHING THE AMPLE MOISTURE WELL OUT OF THE
AREA BY NIGHTFALL. THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW OVER
LOUISIANA KEEPING DRY NORTHWEST WINDS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL MIN TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS. ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW
THURSDAY OVER MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH AND PULL A DEEP ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN OF MOIST INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL MINIMUMS WILL HOLD FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

18/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
545 AM CST MON NOV 6 2006

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-071200-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
545 AM CST MON NOV 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING.  BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35.  HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.