Severe Thunderstorm Warning 264, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WWUS54 KEWX 180924
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
423 AM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006

TXC385-463-180945-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0264.000000T0000Z-060618T0945Z/
REAL TX-UVALDE TX-
423 AM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM CDT
FOR UVALDE AND REAL COUNTIES...

AT 420 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF CAMP WOOD...OR ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LEAKEY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE MONTELL

LAT...LON 2944 10011 2960 10011 2962 10009 2962 10002
      2963 10001 2970 10003 2980 9996 2980 9995
      2971 9978 2937 9997

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1228 AM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006

.AVIATION...
PREVIOUS TAFS ON TRACK WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DUE TO ARRIVE AT
KAUS AT 07Z...THEN TO KSAT BY 9Z...THEN MOVING SOUTH TOWARD KCRP
AFTER 12Z. IFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT KSAT/KAUS BY 15Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KDRT FOR THE
NEXT 24H.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 905 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006)

UPDATE...
QUIET NIGHT SO FAR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS, BUT PRESENT CONDITIONS
WONT LAST LONG AS MCS IN NORTHERN TX CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD.
SVR TSTM WATCH #506 IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL
4 AM CDT (SEE WCNEWX FOR FURTHER DETAILS). THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF
THE CWA LOOK THE MOST LIKELY TO GET THE HEAVIEST RAIN...WITH
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES, AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FLOODING OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF THE
SYSTEM SLOWS OVER OUR AREA. THE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO TREK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND IS ANTICIPATED TO CLEAR THE CWA
BY MID-AFTERNOON. UPDATED POP/QPF/WX GRIDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO
REFLECT CURRENT MCS TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 645 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006)

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KSAT/KAUS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHEN A MCS WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT KAUS AT 7Z WITH MVFR CIGS...IFR VISIBILITIES
IN HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR GREATER. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ARRIVE AT KSAT BETWEEN 9-13Z AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
COMPLEX SLOWS AND/OR DIMINISHES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
BOTH KSAT AND KAUS BY 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT KDRT FOR
THE NEXT 24H.

PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 315 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006)

DISCUSSION...
THE LAST REMNANT CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS ARE ABOUT TO EXIT
THE AREA...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS SCNTRL
TX. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANOTHER MCS
TONIGHT...AND THE POSITION OF A CUT-OFF LOW OR TROUGH TRANSLATING
FROM THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
LATE IN THE WEEK. THE 12Z NCEP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
TREND WILL WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. EXPECT TO STICK NEAR THE GFS TEMPS
AND POPS FOR MOST PERIODS...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER POPS TONIGHT AND
LOWER MAX TEMPS SUN-WED.

THE EXPERIMENTAL NCEP 4KM WRF AND ETA-NAM HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT IN PORTRAYING AN MCS PROPAGATING FROM NWRN TX THIS
EVENING SSE INTO SCNTRL TX AFTER MIDNIGHT...JOINED IN THE LAST FEW
RUNS BY THE GFS. CORFIDI VECTORS...PLACEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...AND CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING NEAR THE RED RIVER ALL SUPPORT
THIS SCENARIO. WILL BOOST POPS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA AND
INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
PRIMARY THREAT PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM...AND THE
PRIMARY THREAT AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. THIS IS
ABOUT AS HIGH A CONFIDENCE IN MESOSCALE SYSTEMS AS WE CAN HAVE...
SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FOR TWO
DAYS...WHILE ANALYSIS OF OBSERVATIONS AND CLIMATOLOGY ALSO SUPPORT
THE FORECAST.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN EQUALLY PERSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A PIECE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE
POLAR JET AND SETTLE OVER THE UPPER TX COAST...THEN MOVE WEST AS
AN EASTERLY WAVE TO THE RIO GRANDE BY LATE IN THE WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME WEAKER IN THE MODEL PROJECTIONS
OVER THE LAST SIX RUNS...ANY TYPE OF TROUGHING AND MOIST GULF AIR
WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED POPS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL MAX
TEMPS. WILL GO WITH THE GFS FOR 20 OR LESS POPS MON...30 POPS TUE-
THU...THEN 20 OR LESS POPS FRI...IN ESSENCE GOING WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH TX.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

25/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
255 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-181100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
255 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE EAST OF A
ROCKSPRINGS TO HONDO TO CAMPBELLTON LINE. DUE TO HEAVY RAINS LATE
LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING...RUNOFF WILL BECOME MORE RAPID AND
MAY LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THERE ARE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.