Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1114 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH LITTLE IF ANY WEAKENING. AS A RESULT, WILL BOOST POPS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY INTO THE AUSTIN METROPOLITAN AREA. ALSO,
WILL MENTION POSSIBLE SEVERE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THAT
AREA. FINALLY, WILL CANCEL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR VAL VERDE
COUNTY AND MAINTAIN FOR LAST HOUR FOR EDWARDS AND REAL COUNTIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 953 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2006)

UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS SHOW SEVERE STORM HAS MANAGED TO
STAY JUST NORTH OF VAL VERDE COUNTY NORTH OF JUNO WHILE A LINE OF
STORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM THIS STORM NORTHEAST TO NEAR BRADY. THE
LINE WAS MOVING EAST. LOW LEVEL JET IS INTENSIFYING AND HAVE
EXTENDED 30 POPS EAST TO THE AUSTIN AREA AND BOOSTED TO 40 NORTH
OF A HARPER TO MARBLE FALLS TO FLORENCE LINE AND MAINTAINED POPS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE, ONGOING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK, HOWEVER IF A SHORT-WAVE NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT PATH, POPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED
FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 637 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2006)

AVIATION...
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WHARTON TO THREE RIVERS TO
UVALDE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVER THE RIO GRANDE REGION
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 05Z. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. VFR WILL PREVAIL
AT TAF SITES THROUGH 08Z...OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA...THEN MVFR AT
KDRT AND KSAT...WITH IFR AT KAUS. AFTER 15Z CIGS AND VSBYS IMPROVE
AND VFR ARE EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 609 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2006)

UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM
WHARTON TO THREE RIVERS TO UVALDE TO SONORA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE
20 POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS, EXCEPT NORTHEAST
PARTS WHERE IT WILL REACH LAST AND WELL AFTER SUNSET WHEN STORMS
SHOULD DISSIPATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 502 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2006)

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #305 FOR REAL,
EDWARDS, AND VAL VERDE COUNTIES. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE TRANS-PECOS TO SIERRA MADRE AREA.
CORFIDI VECTORS WILL TAKE THESE INTO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU,
ESPECIALLY RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS. BASED ON 18Z ETA, HAVE
INTRODUCED SLIGHT POPS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
JUST EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED POSSIBLY
SEVERE FOR KINNEY AND MAVERICK COUNTIES, ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER JUST
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE MAKES THIS AREA SLIGHTLY LESS LIKELY THAN
FURTHER NORTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2006)

DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER AND WET SOIL KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS TEMPS FINALLY EXCEED THE
TRIGGER TEMP. THE BEST CHANCE THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS VAL
VERDE COUNTY. STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. MONDAY THE CWFA
WILL ONCE AGAIN EXPERIENCE MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GULF.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
AS A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRAVERSES SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS.

THE MAIN EVENT THIS WEEK WILL BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT.
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROF WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WILL BE EAST OF THE CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA. MCSS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TEXAS COULD RIDE DOWN THE NORTHEAST
PERIFERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
REGION SOME TIME THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  90  72  90 / 40 20 20 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  68  89  71  88 / 30 20 20 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  95  73  92 / 20 10 20 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  89  72  88 / 20 20 20 50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

04/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
503 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2006

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-082215-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
503 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME UNSTABLE OVER THE RIO GRANDE REGION AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AND MOVE EAST. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT HEAVY
RAINFALL...CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH
THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND EVEN INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE STORMS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.