Red Flag Warning 31, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WWUS84 KEWX 102257
RFWEWX

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
557 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

......RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM...

.BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER...RH VALUES OVER THE WARNED AREA ARE
CLIMBING BACK ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AS EARLY EVENING
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO DECREASE TO
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

TXZ183-202>204-217>219-228-110000-
/O.EXP.KEWX.FW.W.0031.000000T0000Z-060510T2300Z/
VAL VERDE-KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-FRIO-DIMMIT-
557 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CONTINUED BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...BUT
GRADUALLY INCREASING RH VALUES AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1110 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
PER EARLIER FORECASTS. INSTABILITY LINGERS AND WITH
HEATING THIS WOULD BE THE BEST AREA FOR NEW LIFT TO
MAKE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.  WEST OF A LINE FROM
NEAR CAMPBELLTON TO SEGUIN TO TAYLOR...WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE EVOLVED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT
IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT WILL SHOW DRY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON
IN THESE AREAS. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CAUSE TEMPS TO
FALL FROM UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTN HIGHS TODAY.  WILL
CONTINUE WITH TREND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
FORECASTS TRY TO SHOW ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT
WEEK...YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS SHOWED MONDAY...TODAYS
SHOW DRIER WEATHER MONDAY...WITH CHANCE OF POSSIBLE
SHOWERS NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 705 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006)

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO A FACTOR ACROSS
SOME LOCATIONS. MINIMUM CIG/VIS CONDITIONS ARE IN THE IFR
CATEGORY. THESE WILL LIFT BY 18-19Z. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. AFTERNOON SKIES SHOULD BECOME VFR
AND REMAIN FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 400 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006)

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM GAINESVILLE SW TO NEAR
MIDLAND AND IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO OUR NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES
SHORTLY AFTER NOON...THEN THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES
BEFORE SUNSET. ANOTHER HOT DAY ON TAP...WITH PREFRONTAL WARMING
SENDING TEMPS SOARING INTO THE 90S...TO OVER 100 ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY SOUTH OF DEL RIO. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 EAST OF BEXAR COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. LARGE SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES CLOSE TO
5000 J/KG ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SE COUNTIES...
WHERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE. PRECIP WILL TEMPORARILY
EXIT THE FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A DRY NW FLOW PREVAILS
AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY...WITH A
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
OFF TO THE ESE. GULF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT WILL BE LIMITED INITIALLY THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE GULF. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE A RETURN TO THE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH
DOWN INTO OUR AREA. GENERALLY A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND
SUNDAY WITH DIVERGENT MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND POOR RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE GFS.

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

08/06/JB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-111100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
632 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWFA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
851 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             9 S FREDERICKSBURG      30.14N 98.87W
05/09/2006  M1.00 INCH       GILLESPIE          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 TO 1.25 INCH HAIL FOR 10 MIN. NEAR THE HENKE STORE ON
            HWY 16.

&&

JPB