Flash Flood Warning 90, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 101351
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
844 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006

TXC031-171-265-101515-
GILLESPIE TX-BLANCO TX-KERR TX-
844 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM CDT FOR
KERR...BLANCO AND GILLESPIE COUNTIES...

AT 839 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A NEAR SOLID AREA OF 
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA.
THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH...BUT REDEVELOPMENT 
CONTINUES TO OCCUR WEST OF THE WARNED AREA...SUGGESTING A TRAINING 
PATTERN.

RADAR ESTIMATES COMBINED WITH GROUND REPORTS SUGGEST RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS MAY HAVE EXCEEDED 4 INCHES IN SPOTS. HIGHEST TOTALS WERE 
NOTED ALONG HIGHWAY 41 OVER KERR COUNTY...EXTENDING EAST TO 
FREDERICKSBURG...WILLOW CITY...AND ROUND MOUNTAIN. AN ADDITIONAL 1 
TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THROUGH 10 AM. IF THIS HAPPENS...THE 
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED AN EXTENSION WITH MORE SERIOUS FLOODING 
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE LATEST FLOOD INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3050 9930 3028 9931 3028 9975 3009 9976
      3008 9967 2992 9969 2994 9920 2981 9894
      3015 9892 3015 9859 2996 9842 3004 9832
      3044 9814 3050 9836 3050 9860

$$

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 101512
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1010 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006

TXC031-171-265-101520-
GILLESPIE TX-BLANCO TX-KERR TX-
1010 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1015 AM CDT FOR KERR...
BLANCO AND GILLESPIE COUNTIES...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE WARNED AREA...BUT WILL 
PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OF ONLY AROUND ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR. THIS 
WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW WATER CROSSINGS FLOODED BUT NOT CREATE ANY 
ADDITIONAL FLOODING. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR 
KERR...BLANCO...AND GILLESPIE CONTIES HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3050 9930 3028 9931 3028 9975 3009 9976
      3008 9967 2992 9969 2994 9920 2981 9894
      3015 9892 3015 9859 2996 9842 3004 9832
      3044 9814 3050 9836 3050 9860

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
735 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006

.AVIATION...TIL 21Z MVFR CIGS WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LCLY LOWERING VSBYS AOB 3 MI. SOME STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TIL
EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER 21Z VFR CONDITIONS WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING
LESS NUMEROUS AND AFT 01Z VFR. SLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT EXCEPT STRONG
AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 731 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006)

AVIATION...TIL 21Z MVFR CIGS WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LCLY LOWERING VSBYS AOB 3 MI. AFTER 21Z VFR
CONDITIONS WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND AFT 01Z
VFR. SLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT EXCEPT STRONG AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006)

DISCUSSION...
BUSY MORNING ON TAP FOR THE HILL COUNTRY. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE AUSTIN AREA.
STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WAS
DRIVING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EASTWARD ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS
REGION AND THE CONCHO VALLEY. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS STILL LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST. CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RACES NORTHEASTWARD. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE VERY WARM AS WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST ALLOWING DOWNSLOPING FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX SWINGING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL REACH THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL HAVE RETURNED TO THE
REGION ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE
THE STRONGEST COLD FRONT OF THE FALL SEASON. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S DUE TO CAA AT THE SFC AND
OVERRUNNING CLOUDINESS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS TEXAS. SUNSHINE AND DRIER WEATHER RETURN ON TUESDAY AS
THE LATEST UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED TROF AXIS
MOVES EAST OF TEXAS.

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

13/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
507 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-111015-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
507 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS UNTIL 10 AM. UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING EAST WILL COMBINE
WITH AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A SIGNIFICANT FALL COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. THEN...POST FRONTAL OVERRUNNING RAINS WILL BEGIN SATURDAY
WITH ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY. STORMS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND
TONIGHT.