Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 021555
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1052 AM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

TXC019-463-021630-
BANDERA TX-UVALDE TX-
1052 AM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CDT FOR
UVALDE AND BANDERA COUNTIES...

AT 1045 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS UVALDE AND 
BANDERA COUNTIES.  ALTHOUGH THE HEAVY RAINS HAVE SUBSIDED... 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH CAN BE 
EXPECTED.  BECAUSE THERE CONTINUES TO BE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS 
EARLIER THIS MORNING...FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.

WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. THE LIFE YOU 
SAVE MAY BE YOUR OWN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE LATEST FLOOD INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 2960 9992 2929 9984 2938 9947 2966 9941
      2966 9900 2988 9923 2988 9959 2962 9960

$$

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 021631
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1127 AM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

TXC019-463-021637-
BANDERA TX-UVALDE TX-
1127 AM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1130 AM CDT FOR UVALDE AND
BANDERA COUNTIES...

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FOR UVALDE AND BANDERA COUNTIES WILL BE 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS WERE STARTING TO 
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF BANDERA COUNTY THIS PAST HOUR.  
ALSO...RESIDUAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AS THE HEAVY RAINS THAT FELL 
EARLIER THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO RUNOFF INTO STREAMS AND RIVERS.  

MOTORISTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVELING 
THROUGH BANDERA AND UVALDE COUNTIES. PEOPLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY 
OFF AND AWAY FROM RIVERS AND CREEKS AS RESIDUAL FLOODING CONTINUES 
AND THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL RAIN REMAINS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
652 AM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

.AVIATION...
HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS UNFOLDING WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR A
VARIABLE CEILING FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY
TO OCCUR PERIODICALLY THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT FOR AUS AND
SAT AERODROMES. THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS COULD SEE
MORE VFR CONDITIONS, BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD STILL
LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS BRIEFLY. E/SE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT,
EXCEPT NEAR SOME OF THE STRONGER DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 414 AM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006)

DISCUSSION...
WET FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE POPS START TO DROP OFF TO
NEAR CLIMO VALUES. WELCOMED RAIN WILL PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY
RELIEF TO ARES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HIT HARD BY A DROUGHT THAT
HAS BEEN GOING FOR A YEAR AND A HALF.

AT 00Z...PWATS WERE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...ABOVE NORMAL BUT
STILL LESS THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE. HOWEVER...THAT
LOOKS TO BE CHANGING WITH A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HEADED
NORTH INTO SOUTH TEXAS AS SEEN ON BOTH THE LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE LOOPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM(WRF) SOLUTIONS SHOW PWATS
INCREASING TO ABOVE TWO INCHES ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER TODAY
AND UP TO AN IMPRESSIVE 2.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR EASTERN-MOST
COUNTIES BY MID DAY MONDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED AT SOME POINT...BUT WILL HOLD-OFF FOR NOW AND WAIT FOR
SOME 12Z DATA TO DROP IN LATER THIS MORNING. IF TODAYS ROUND OF
CONVECTION FOLLOWS THE SAME DIURNAL TREND AS YESTERDAYS...WE
WONT NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MONDAY.

THE 500MB CIRCULATION OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IS FORECAST TO HANG
AROUND OUR AREA AND INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND OUR LOW GETS CAUGHT-UP IN THE EASTERLIES. THE TREND
TOWARD CLIMO TEMPS AND POPS AFTER WEDNESDAY LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. OUR NUMBERS ARE ONCE AGAIN
VERY CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS MOS...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A VERY GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT WEATHER SCENARIO.

FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAIN AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED GOING
INTO THE 4TH OF JULY.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

11/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
545 AM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-031100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
545 AM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LOW INTERACTS WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE OVER TEXAS.
THE FOCUS FOR THESE HEAVY RAINS STRETCH ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF
SOUTH AND EAST TEXAS.

SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALLER SCALE WEATHER
FEATURES COULD DEVELOP IN THIS RICH TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT TO
FURTHER ENHANCE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN. IF THIS HAPPENS..A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR
THE WEATHER AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS IF A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY BEYOND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.