Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
244 AM MDT WED SEP 13 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKY MOUNTAINS TODAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. SEASONABLY WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS FORECASTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WESTERLY WINDS FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH ONE VORT LOBE/SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND CENTER AND
SUSTAINING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. GFS AND NAM
REMAIN DIVIDED ON SYSTEM MOVEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH UKMET MORE
IN AGREEMENT WITH GFS WHILE ECMWF A COMPROMISE. LATEST FORECAST
WILL BE A BLEND...THUS EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS
THURSDAY AND BE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY TOMORROW EVENING.

APPROACH OF SYSTEM WILL INDUCE UPWARD MOTION AND ATTENDANT COOLING
ALOFT OVER THE CWA VIA DIFFERENTIAL PVA WITH MID LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS ALSO INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KT. CONCURRENTLY SURFACE
TROUGHING OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL SUSTAIN LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE INFLOW. COMBINATION OF MOIST AIR LOW LEVELS AND COOLING
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AFTERNOON
CAPES AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THUS APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF LOW
SHOULD GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND COOLING ALOFT RESULTING IN ISOLATED STORMS
NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.

ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY WITH LEE SURFACE
TROUGHING THROUGH SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. PATTERN CHANGE WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY THOUGH SUNDAY WITH
WARM DRY CONDITIONS PROBABLE. LATEST GFS BRINGS MOISTURE BACK INTO
SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER NEXT WEEK AS FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP OUTLOOK DRY UNTIL MODELS SHOW
MORE CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR AND ISOLATED AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 85  64  87  65  88 /  40  30  30  20  10
SIERRA BLANCA TX        82  61  85  62  83 /  40  30  30  20  10
LAS CRUCES              84  61  87  62  88 /  40  30  30  20  10
ALAMOGORDO              85  59  88  62  86 /  40  30  30  20  10
CLOUDCROFT              62  45  65  46  65 /  40  40  40  20  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   83  59  86  61  85 /  40  40  30  20  10
SILVER CITY             75  54  78  54  77 /  50  40  30  20  10
DEMING                  82  60  85  61  87 /  40  40  30  20  10
LORDSBURG               83  60  86  60  89 /  50  40  30  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

05 ROGASH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1035 AM MDT WED SEP 13 2006

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-132200-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1035 AM MDT WED SEP 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...HAIL TO ONE AND ONE-HALF
INCHES...AND LOCAL RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ENDING BY EVENING. A
FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS EARLY. STORMS SHOULD END
BY LATE AFTERNOON.

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO PROVIDE REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MACBLAIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
1107 AM MDT WED SEP 13 2006

NMZ022-023-032-131930-
SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION NM-SOUTHERN DESERT NM-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN NM-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION NM-
1107 AM MDT WED SEP 13 2006

AT 1105 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
BROKEN LINE OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS
TO 50 MPH...HAIL TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...AND RAINFALL RATES
OF ONE INCH PER HOUR.  THE LINE EXTENDED FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SILVER CITY TO NEAR LAS CRUCES. MOVEMENT WAS NORTH AT 15 MPH.

MACBLAIN