Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
107 PM MDT FRI JUL 14 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOIST AIR INTO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS WHILE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE
NEAR THE REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING A FEW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH CENTER NOW LOCATED NEAR FOUR CORNERS REGION AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY INTO TUESDAY.
CIRCULATION AROUND CENTER WILL INDUCE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE USUAL THERMAL
LOW OVER WESTERN ARIZONA WITH BOUNDARY LAYER EASTERLY WINDS
TRANSPORTING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER MID
LEVEL FLOW MAY BE DRIER AS TRAJECTORIES SHOW INFLOW OF WARM CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS ABOVE 600 MB FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY
OCCUR WHEN WEAK EASTERLY MOVING WAVES/INVERTED TROUGHS ALOFT
APPROACH THE AREA AS SUGGESTED BY MODELS. TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THESE FEATURES DIFFICULT USUALLY REQUIRING BROAD BRUSH FORECAST OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

BOTH GFS AND WRF PREDICT ONE SUCH WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN TEXAS
ON SATURDAY WITH DEEP TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE. HOWEVER BOTH
MODELS ALSO CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER
UPWARD FORCING SOUTH OF THE BORDER. NEVERTHELESS ENOUGH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHOULD OCCUR NORTHWARD TO BRING CWA PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS NEAR 1.2 OVER SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG WITH CAPES ABOVE 1000
J/KG. THUS SCATTERED CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY ON SATURDAY.

THEREAFTER EXPECT WARMER DRIER AIR ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL HEATING AND MOISTURE FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY FROM THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 76  96  73  96  74 /  20  30  20  20  20
SIERRA BLANCA TX        69  94  66  93  66 /  20  30  20  20  20
LAS CRUCES              73  95  71  95  71 /  20  30  20  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              71  94  68  94  68 /  20  30  20  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              55  71  51  71  52 /  20  30  20  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   71  94  68  94  68 /  20  20  20  10  10
SILVER CITY             68  90  64  90  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
DEMING                  72  95  69  97  69 /  20  30  20  20  20
LORDSBURG               72  97  69  96  70 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

05 ROGASH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1020 AM MDT FRI JUL 14 2006

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-150000-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1020 AM MDT FRI JUL 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HAZARD POTENTIALS INCLUDE SMALL HAIL...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINS WITH MINOR FLOODING... AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY
FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS MAY BE CALLED UPON TO PROVIDE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ROGASH