Flash Flood Warning 85, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
220 PM MDT WED AUG 30 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT KEEPS THE MAIN AREA
OF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY THAT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND A NORTHERLY FLOW OCCUR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE NEAR TERM WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT KEEPS THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME OUT OF THE AREA AND HELPS SUPPRESS CONVECTION WITH THE
REGION. DAY TIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TO
GENERATE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AND AGAIN TOMORROW. THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF
NEW MEXICO WILL SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO MORE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE PRESENT IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT NOT
MUCH ON ITS STRENGTH. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE PLAINS WILL
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH DECENT EAST WINDS
AND SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING EXPECTED. LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE DECENT WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME AREAS MAY SEE ONE TO TWO INCH
AMOUNTS FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM. AT THIS TIME
MODELS DO NOT PROJECT THAT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE JOHN ON THE
MEXICAN COAST WILL REACH THE REGION BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED SHOULD THE TRACK OF THE STORM CHANGE.

BY NEXT MONDAY AS THE FRONT LOSES DEFINITION THE HIGH ALOFT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...PLACING THE
REGION UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE FLOW AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND
ISOLATED LOWLAND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 31/00Z-01/00Z
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR FOR
CIGS/VSBY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING AND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS THIS EVENING. SEE APPROPRIATE TAF AND TWEBS FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 68  90  69  91  70 /  10  10  20  20  20
SIERRA BLANCA TX        59  87  58  90  56 /  10  10  20  20  20
LAS CRUCES              65  89  67  91  68 /  10  10  20  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              65  88  66  94  67 /  10  10  20  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              47  71  47  72  47 /  20  30  20  30  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   64  85  65  90  66 /  10  10  20  20  20
SILVER CITY             59  85  59  85  63 /  30  30  30  30  30
DEMING                  63  89  64  91  65 /  30  30  20  20  20
LORDSBURG               62  91  62  91  64 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1142 AM MDT WED AUG 30 2006

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-311745-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1142 AM MDT WED AUG 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES...ARROYOS AND LOW
LYING AREAS AND ROADS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT MAY ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING SOME FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHOULD WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OCCUR...FLOODING ALONG
ARROYOS...DRAINAGES AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY BECOME A POSSIBILITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD CONTACT THE LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE IF SEVERE WEATHER
OR FLOODING CONDITIONS OCCUR AT THEIR LOCATION.

LUNDEEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
809 PM MDT WED AUG 30 2006

NMZ024-032-TXZ055-310330-
SOUTHERN DESERT NM-EL PASO TX
809 PM MDT WED AUG 30 2006

AT 740 PM MDT...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 AND 25 CORRIDOR BETWEEN EL PASO AND LAS
CRUCES.  RAINFALL RATES UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR ARE ALREADY OCCURRING
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WINDS GUSTING TO
40 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

PONDING OR RUNNING WATER IS LIKELY IN LOW SPOTS ACROSS LOCAL ROADS.
EXERCISE CAUTION...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...WHEN APPROACHING WATER
ACROSS THE ROADWAY.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE VINTON...WESTWAY...LA
MESA...LA UNION...MESQUITE AND VADO.

TRIPOLI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
1050 PM MDT WED AUG 30 2006

NMZ022>024-031-032-TXZ055-310530-
SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION NM-SOUTHERN DESERT NM-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN NM-EL PASO TX-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION NM-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT NM-
1050 PM MDT WED AUG 30 2006

...THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING  ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO...

AT 1042 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WESTERN TEXAS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE
CITY OF EL PASO AND SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY NEAR SANTA TERESA AND
SUNLAND PARK.

ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS MOVING ACROSS INTERSTATE 25 NEAR
HATCH NEW MEXICO. STORMS WERE ALSO INCREASING OVER EASTERN LUNA
COUNTY NEAR INTERSTATE 10 AND ALSO AROUND DEMING.

THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH STREET FLOODING
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF...BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON THE HIGHWAYS AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

ROGASH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
1134 PM MDT WED AUG 30 2006

NMZ022>024-031-032-TXZ055-310615-
SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION NM-SOUTHERN DESERT NM-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN NM-EL PASO TX-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION NM-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT NM-
1134 PM MDT WED AUG 30 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO...

AT 1125 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND STREET
FLOODING...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL
MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.

STRONGEST STORMS WERE OVER THE EL PASO METROPOLITAN AREA AND AROUND
SANTA TERESA AND SUNLAND PARK NEW MEXICO. OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WERE OVER LUNA COUNTY ACROSS INTERSTATE 10 AND AROUND DEMING.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF...BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON THE HIGHWAYS AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

ROGASH