Flash Flood Warning 80, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
230 PM MDT TUE AUG 22 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE BORDERLAND IS KEEPING A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. BEST RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE NORTH AND WEST
BUT ISOLATED STORMS COULD CAUSE FLOODING ANYWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION AND
NUDGE THE DEEP MOISTURE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISH CHANCES
FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY. BY THE WEEKEND INCREASED
MOISTURE LOOKS TO RETURN FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED SHOWERS
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MID AND UPPER DRYING AS A SLOT OF DRIER
AIR WORKS OVER THE EASTERN CWFA ON SE FLOW UNDER THE UPPER HIGH.
THIS LOOKS TO BE CURTAILING SOME EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER WE STILL HAVE A NUMBER OF HOURS OF HEATING AND
HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THUS HAVE KEPT ALL ZONES IN THE
SCT POP CATEGORY FOR TONIGHT. I BELIEVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS WILL BE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...BUT EVEN
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA SHOULD BECOME UNSTABLE
DUE TO SURFACE HEATING AND POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE MOSTLY TO THE SATURATED NATURE OF
THE SOILS AND THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES. THIS IS DESPITE SOMEWHAT
BETTER STORM MOTION...AVERAGING NORTH AT 12-15 MPH.

THE UPPER HIGH IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT WEST. THIS WESTWARD JOG IN THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL HELP TO NUDGE THE DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME TO OUR WEST. THUS THE AREA WILL BE DRIEST EAST AND MORE MOIST
WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WED-FRI. THUS WILL TRIM POPS DOWN
TO ISOLATED FOR THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. WILL KEEP THE
BOOTHEEL...GILA...SACS IN THE SCATTERED POP CATEGORIES. WITH LOWER
MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD SEE LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPS FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. THIS FEATURE WILL
SHOVE THE UPPER HIGH BACK EAST...PUTTING THE AREA UNDER A PATTERN
VERY SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ONE. THIS MEANS A RETURN OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. TO BE SPECIFIC...IT APPEARS
WELL MOVE BACK INTO A WETTER PATTERN WITH INCREASED STORM CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...23/00Z-24/00Z
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TCS AND
DMN...ISOLATED ELP. SCATTERED AREAS OF IFR/MVFR FOR LOW CIGS/VSBY
NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF STRONG AND ERRATIC SURFACE
WINDS DUE TO STORM OUTFLOW. OUTFLOW WINDS VRB20G35KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 68  92  71  95  69 /  30  20  20  20  20
SIERRA BLANCA TX        61  86  64  89  66 /  30  20  20  20  20
LAS CRUCES              66  92  67  93  69 /  30  20  20  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              65  93  67  94  68 /  50  30  20  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              46  70  48  71  50 /  50  30  20  30  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   64  89  67  92  66 /  50  30  30  30  30
SILVER CITY             57  80  60  83  60 /  50  40  40  40  40
DEMING                  63  91  66  93  65 /  30  30  30  30  30
LORDSBURG               62  91  64  93  64 /  40  40  30  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ-055>056 & NMZ-022>025-030>032.

14 / BIRD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1110 AM MDT TUE AUG 22 2006

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-230300-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1110 AM MDT TUE AUG 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR FAR
WEST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. STORMS MOST LIKELY NORTH AND WEST. HEAVY RAIN WILL
OCCUR WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS...WITH RAIN AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 2
INCHES WITHIN 3 HOURS OVER A FEW LOCATIONS. FLOODING ALONG
DRAINAGES...ARROYOS...SMALL STREAMS...LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED
AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

STORM ACTIVITY AND FLOOD POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD CONTACT THE LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE IF SEVERE WEATHER
OR FLOODING CONDITIONS OCCUR AT THEIR LOCATION.

BIRD