Flash Flood Warning 73, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
245 PM MDT THU AUG 17 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS
AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM RAIN RUNOFF. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. DRIER CONDITIONS AND JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE SHIFTS WEST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING DEEPEST MOISTURE OVER EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS
SMALL DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST. THIS DRY SLOT HAS LIKELY
DESTABILIZED THE MID LEVELS AND IS HELPING KICK OFF SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GILA WILDERNESS. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ALOFT
AND DISTURBANCES OVER THE BAJA LIKELY TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SOME...
WITH GFS BASICALLY KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE OVER CWA THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE MOVING IT NORTH AND WEST OF AREA ON MONDAY AND BEYOND. NAM
BRINGS DRIER AIR IN AFTER FRIDAY...THOUGH IT DOES ALSO BRING GULF OF
MEXICO FEATURE MUCH STRONGER INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY. NAM ALSO
TRIES TO BRING WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT INTO THE EASTERN CWA SATURDAY
BUT SEEMS SUSPECT GIVEN THE UPPER PATTERN.

AT ANY RATE WILL TOW LINE CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION...KEEPING FAIRLY
HIGH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN DECREASING COVERAGE
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 18/00Z-19/00Z
SCATTERED TSTMS TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF IFR/MVFR FOR CIGS/VSBY
NEAR THE STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 69  89  70  90  71 /  50  40  40  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA TX        63  81  67  84  67 /  50  40  40  30  30
LAS CRUCES              70  89  69  91  70 /  50  40  40  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              70  90  67  91  67 /  50  40  40  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              51  66  50  68  49 /  50  50  50  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   68  85  67  88  67 /  50  40  40  30  30
SILVER CITY             62  80  61  83  60 /  50  40  40  40  40
DEMING                  66  87  67  89  67 /  50  40  40  30  30
LORDSBURG               66  88  67  88  67 /  50  40  40  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT TXZ 055>056 NMZ 022>025-030>032

17 HEFNER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1035 AM MDT THU AUG 17 2006

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-180000-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1035 AM MDT THU AUG 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR
FAR WEST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HEAVY
RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS...WITH RAIN AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES WITHIN 3 HOURS OVER A FEW LOCATIONS. FLOODING
ALONG DRAINAGES...ARROYOS...SMALL STREAMS...LOW LYING AND POORLY
DRAINED AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A DEEP LAYER OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRYING SOME MONDAY AND BEYOND.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD CONTACT THE LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE IF SEVERE WEATHER
OR FLOODING CONDITIONS OCCUR AT THEIR LOCATION.