Flash Flood Warning 64, NWS El Paso, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEPZ 170021
FFSEPZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
611 PM MDT WED AUG 16 2006

NMC013-170030-
DONA ANA NM-
611 PM MDT WED AUG 16 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY...

AT 603 PM MDT...A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER ON AFTON ROAD WEST OF 
HIGHWAY 28...REPORTED THAT AN EARTHENED DAM IN A NEARBY ARROYO
HAD BEEN WASHED OUT.  WATER IN THIS ARROYO WAS ESTIMATED
AT 10 FEET DEEP AND WAS GOING OVER ITS BANKS.  WATER IS COMPLETELY 
COVERING SECTIONS OF HIGHWAY 28 NEAR AFTON ROAD AT THIS TIME.   

MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...SO STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. 

MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO 
CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER 
TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO 
ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF 
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.  TURN AROUND...DONT 
DROWN.

LAT...LON 3249 10638 3201 10639 3201 10663 3198 10666
      3197 10663 3189 10664 3183 10663 3178 10653
      3178 10653 3179 10716 3252 10719

$$

TRIPOLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
220 PM MDT WED AUG 16 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS LIKELY. THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE. BY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BECOME DRIER AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED MORE TO ISOLATED COVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH TIME TO CHAT. MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING PROBLEMS. GFS AND NAM
STILL IN DISAGREEMENT ON DRYING TREND. WILL STICK CLOSER TO GFS FOR
NOW WHICH KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. PLUME BEGINS TO MOVE WEST ON MONDAY...TO MAINLY WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HIGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE BIG BEND/WEST TEXAS
AREA TO HOPEFULLY DRY MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 17/00Z-18/00Z
SCT MVFR CIGS IN +TSRA...WITH ISOLATED IFR CIGS/VSBY. TSRA
PERSISTING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 70  90  72  91  70 /  60  40  40  40  40
SIERRA BLANCA TX        61  79  64  83  66 /  70  40  40  40  40
LAS CRUCES              70  87  72  91  69 /  60  40  40  40  40
ALAMOGORDO              69  90  71  92  66 /  70  40  40  40  40
CLOUDCROFT              49  67  49  67  49 /  70  40  40  50  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   69  87  69  87  66 /  50  40  40  40  40
SILVER CITY             61  80  61  81  58 /  50  40  40  40  40
DEMING                  68  88  67  89  66 /  60  40  40  40  40
LORDSBURG               66  89  67  90  66 /  50  40  40  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

17 HEFNER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1120 AM MDT WED AUG 16 2006

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-161645-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1120 AM MDT WED AUG 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR
FAR WEST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. THE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALLS WITH RAIN AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES WITHIN 3 HOURS OVER A FEW LOCATIONS. FLOODING
ALONG DRAINAGES...ARROYOS...SMALL STREAMS...LOW LYING AND POORLY
DRAINED AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A DEEP LAYER OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRYING SOME LATER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME FLOODING POSSIBLE. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM BOTH DAY AND NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD CONTACT THE LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE IF SEVERE WEATHER
OR FLOODING CONDITIONS OCCUR AT THEIR LOCATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
141 PM MDT WED AUG 16 2006

NMZ032-TXZ055-162145-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAS CRUCES...EL PASO
141 PM MDT WED AUG 16 2006

FOR THE RIO GRANDE, INCLUDING EL PASO, MINOR FLOODING IS
FORECASTED.

HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE EL PASO AREA HAS
CREATED A LARGE AMOUNT OF RUNOFF INTO THE RIO GRANDE NEAR HATCH. AS
OF 130 PM MDT...THE RIO GRANDE IN EL PASO CONTINUED TO RISE VERY
QUICKLY...AND IS NOW FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY 6 PM MDT
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED THAT THE RIO GRANDE HAD
EXCEEDED ITS BANKS FROM SANTA TERESA TO SUNLAND PARK AT 100 PM MDT.

FOR THE RIO GRANDE IN EL PASO, THE LATEST STAGE IS 7.4 FEET AT 1 PM
WEDNESDAY.  MINOR FLOODING IS FORECASTED, WITH A MAXIMUM STAGE OF
BETWEEN 8.5 AND 9.0 FEET AT 6 PM WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE.

TUNE IN TO LOCAL MEDIA AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR FURTHER
UPDATES. HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN EXCESS
RUNOFF ACROSS THE AREA...MEANING THE POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER UPDATES
AND UPGRADES TO THE FORECAST CREST.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

HEFNER