Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
307 AM MDT FRI JUL 7 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTO NEW
MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS INTO SUNDAY WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED WITH HEAVY RAINS
POSSIBLE OVER A FEW AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BRING DRIER WEATHER LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS FELL YESTERDAY WITH ASSOCIATED PATTERN
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGE NOW ALIGNED ON A
NORTH SOUTH AXIS WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS ARIZONA
REINFORCING SURFACE THERMAL LOW. THUS DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN
TEXAS WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE FLUX KEEPING PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS AT OR ABOVE 1.4 THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE MOISTURE IS DEEP
AND LAPSE RATES NOT VERY STEEP ALOFT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE AND HEATING NEXT TWO DAYS TO KEEP AIR MASS AT LEAST
WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH AFTERNOON CAPES AROUND 700 TO 1500 J/KG.
NO WELL DEFINED OR EASILY DETECTED CONVECTIVE INITIATION MECHANISMS
BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND SHORT RANGE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST WEAK
SHORT WAVES/VORT CENTERS WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH. IN
ADDITION EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS THROUGH TOMORROW. STEERING FLOW WILL BE RATHER
WEAK AT 10 TO 15 MPH PLUS LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WILL EQUAL OR
SLIGHTLY EXCEED FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHEAR PROFILE WILL FAVOR A FEW
SLOW MOVING BACK BUILDING CELLS WITH ATTENDANT HEAVY RAINS.
HOWEVER AS IS TYPICAL WITH THIS SCENARIO EXCESSIVE RAINFALLS WILL
BE VERY ISOLATED SO WILL ISSUE STRONGLY WORDED STATEMENT.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN REFORMING UPPER RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF
THE BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WESTERLY.
HOWEVER FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHEAST WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN BOUNDARY LAYER.
THUS PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR 1.2 ON SUNDAY DESPITE
DRYING AT MID LEVELS. WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ALSO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN BEYOND SUNDAY AS MODELS SHOW SUBTLE BUT
IMPORTANT INCONSISTENCIES EACH RUN. LATEST GFS EXTENDED PERIODS
HAVE FLIP FLOPPED AGAIN TO A DRIER BIAS AS UPPER RIDGE FORECASTED
TO EXTEND ACROSS THE CWA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW COVERAGE
CONVECTION AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...LOWERING TO
IFR IN A FEW LOCATIONS...IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 88  70  92  70  94 /  40  40  30  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA TX        84  64  91  63  89 /  30  40  30  30  30
LAS CRUCES              87  67  92  67  94 /  40  40  30  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              87  66  92  65  93 /  40  40  30  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              63  47  67  46  68 /  50  50  40  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   86  67  91  66  91 /  40  40  40  40  30
SILVER CITY             78  60  82  61  85 /  50  40  40  40  30
DEMING                  87  67  91  66  93 /  40  40  40  40  30
LORDSBURG               88  67  90  66  94 /  50  40  40  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

05 ROGASH