Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
313 PM MDT SUN AUG 13 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAIN FALL FROM
SOME OF THE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO CLOUDS AN RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION IS HELPING TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN A FEW LOCATIONS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A WEAKENING UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHEAST MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION THROUGH THE
MORNING. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT 130 PERCENT OF
NORMAL AND HIGH DEW POINTS THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS OF HEAVY RAIN. AT THIS TIME THE HEAVY RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE WITH FLOODING POTENTIAL
GENERALLY LOCALIZED NEAR STORMS AT THIS TIME.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATER TOMORROW AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE. CONVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY THE WEAKENING
UPPER LOW AND A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT
WILL HELP FOCUS CONVECTION ALONG IT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
FOR TOMORROW AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY APPEAR TO TRANSITION DAYS AT THIS TIME WITH
THE MOISTURE PLUME BEGINNING TO SLOWLY SHIFT BACK THE WEST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT MAY
BE LESS INTENSE. BY FRIDAY THE PLUME OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE FURTHER
WEST WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. NEXT
WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE A BIT DRIER WITH SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER UPPER LOW MAY AFFECT THE REGION BY LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...14/00Z-15/00Z
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED AREAS OF IFR/MVFR FOR
CIGS AND VSBY IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TSTM COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE AND BE MORE PREVALENT TOMORROW ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 72  88  69  88  68 /  40  50  50  50  40
SIERRA BLANCA TX        63  83  60  81  64 /  50  40  40  40  40
LAS CRUCES              69  88  69  88  67 /  40  50  50  50  40
ALAMOGORDO              69  87  67  89  66 /  50  50  50  50  40
CLOUDCROFT              51  66  47  65  48 /  50  50  50  50  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   69  88  68  85  65 /  40  50  50  50  40
SILVER CITY             62  82  60  79  59 /  50  60  60  60  40
DEMING                  67  90  66  88  66 /  40  50  50  50  40
LORDSBURG               65  89  65  86  66 /  40  50  50  50  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1057 AM MDT SUN AUG 13 2006

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-141700-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1057 AM MDT SUN AUG 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN...WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES AND
ARROYOS AND LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE NEAR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
STORMS. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE GENERALLY HIGHER RAIN
AMOUNTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A GENERAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE FUELING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE MOISTURE PLUME MAY SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST
BY NEXT WEEKEND...REDUCING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD CONTACT THE LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE IF SEVERE WEATHER
OR FLOODING CONDITIONS OCCUR AT THEIR LOCATION.

LUNDEEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
1247 PM MDT SUN AUG 13 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1228 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MAYHILL                 32.89N 105.48W
08/13/2006                   OTERO              NM   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            VOLUNTEER LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED THAT HIGHWAY 82 IN
            MAYHILL WAS MADE IMPASSABLE BY RUNNING WATER OF UNKNOWN
            DEPTH.

&&

PIEPER