Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1150 AM MDT SAT AUG 5 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...SO THE THREAT FOR MORE FLOODING CONTINUES. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN AFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL
BEGIN A DRYING TREND...BUT AGAIN THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE. BY MONDAY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL...AND THEN CREEP TOWARD NORMAL ON
BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE HAS CHANGED FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...BUT THERE ARE CHANGES
COMING UP. FOR TONIGHT WE WILL AGAIN SEE THE CHANCES FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINS AND MORE FLOODING. THE EPZ MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED
1.62 INCHES OF PW AND IT WAS PRETTY UNSTABLE WITH ALMOST 1800 OF
CAPE. IN ADDITION STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK...SO NEEDLESS TO SAY
THAT MEANS WE WILL SEE NUMEROUS HEAVY RAINFALL THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY. THE THREAT FOR MORE FLASHING FLOODING
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING IS HIGH SO A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH CONTINUES.

ON SUNDAY DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA...BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GIVE US SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. NOW WHEN I SAY DRYING
IM BASICALLY MEANING WE WILL DRY OUT TO MORE WHAT YOU WOULD
EXPECT FOR THE FIRST PART OF AUGUST. THAT MEANS WE WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL DIMINISH AS WE WORK THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT AND THEY WILL NOT BE THE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WEVE SEEN FOR THE LAST WEEK. IF THE GFS IS
TO BE BELIEVED THE UPPER HIGH TO OUR EAST WILL BUILD INTO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IVE NEVER THOUGHT
ID BE HAPPY TO SEE A BIG HIGH SITTING ON TOP OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR THE REST OF THE COMING WEEK WE WILL SEE
A SLOW WARMING TREND AS TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...AUG 05 18Z - AUG 06 18Z
GNLY SCT-BKN30-050 BKN100-150 AGL WITH WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH MVFR VSBY AND CIGS NEAR STORMS WITH MTN TOPS OCNLY OBSCD. WITH
ISOLATED AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LCL SCT010 BKN015-030 OVC050-080 AGL WITH VSBY 1-3 MI IN +SHRA
TS AND BR. MTNS FQTLY OBSCD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 68  88  71  90  70 /  70  40  30  20  30
SIERRA BLANCA TX        63  86  64  84  65 /  70  30  30  20  30
LAS CRUCES              70  89  68  90  68 /  60  40  30  20  40
ALAMOGORDO              66  86  67  86  67 /  60  40  30  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              50  63  48  66  47 /  70  30  20  30  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   67  86  67  89  66 /  40  50  30  20  40
SILVER CITY             61  84  61  81  59 /  50  50  50  30  50
DEMING                  66  88  68  90  66 /  50  50  40  20  40
LORDSBURG               67  91  68  89  66 /  50  50  40  30  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1022 AM MDT SAT AUG 5 2006

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-061630-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1022 AM MDT SAT AUG 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONTINUES TODAY ACROSS THE
AREA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
CAN PRODUCE RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN AN HOUR. THE THREAT FOR
ROADWAY...RIVER...ARROYO AND RESIDENTIAL FLOODING REMAINS HIGH FOR
TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SO THE FLOODING THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING. AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE...BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF THE DAYS NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD CONTACT THE EL PASO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IF SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY RAIN OCCURS AT THEIR LOCATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
313 PM MDT SAT AUG 5 2006

TXZ055-052145-
EL PASO TX-
313 PM MDT SAT AUG 5 2006

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO EL PASO COUNTY...

AT 315 PM MDT NATIONAL SERVICE WEATHER RADAR SHOWED A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY.  THESE
STORMS WERE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  THIS
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY
DURING THE NEXT ONE HOUR.  IT WILL TAKE THE STORMS A LITTLE LONGER
TO MOVE INTO THE CITY OF EL PASO.  THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL.  THIS RAINFALL WILL FALL
OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND WILL RESULT IN SOME FLOODING.

TSB