Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
221 PM MDT FRI AUG 4 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES THANKS TO A TROPICAL AIR
MASS LOCATED OVER THE REGION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING. IN ADDITION
RECENT RAINS HAVE RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS IN
AREA ARROYOS...STREAMS AND RIVERS.  PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING
AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IN THE EVENT
OF FLOODING. HOWEVER...REMEMBER TO NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER COVERING
A ROADWAY...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER SHORT DISCUSSION...MORE OF THE SAME. SIGNIFICANT BANDING
HAS BEEN OBSERVED TODAY AND IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS THROUGH
SUNDAY. GIVEN CONTINUED HIGH PWS WE HAVE A RECIPE FOR MORE
FLOODING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO FORCE MOISTURE PLUME FARTHER WEST
PRESUMABLY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW OVER PAC NW RIDING OVER UPPER
HIGH CENTERED IN TEXAS. CALL ME SKEPTICAL BUT I DONT BUY IT
BEFORE TUESDAY AND EVEN IF THE PLUME DOES SLIP WEST...SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH AND OUTFLOWS WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE
STORMS MOST ANYWHERE SO EASTERN AREAS ARE NOT SAFE BY ANY MEANS.

HAVE FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE WITH SHORT TERM TEMPS AS THEY HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...AUG 04 18Z - AUG 05 18Z
GNLY SCT0-BKN30-050 BKN100-150 AGL WITH WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH MVFR VSBY AND CIGS NEAR STORMS WITH MTN TOPS OCNLY OBSCD. WITH
ISOLATED AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ESPLY WEST OF A SVC-COLUMBUS LINE AND SOUTH OF A LORDSBURG
DEMING-OROGRANDE LINE WITH LCL SCT010 BKN015-030 OVC050-080 AGL WITH
VSBY 1-3 MI IN +SHRA TS AND BR. MTNS FQTLY OBSCD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 68  85  69  88  71 /  70  60  70  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA TX        65  80  64  86  64 /  90  90  90  30  20
LAS CRUCES              69  86  71  89  68 /  70  50  50  40  30
ALAMOGORDO              66  84  67  86  67 /  70  60  70  40  20
CLOUDCROFT              51  62  51  63  48 /  60  60  90  30  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   68  86  68  86  67 /  70  50  40  50  30
SILVER CITY             63  79  65  84  61 /  70  70  50  50  50
DEMING                  68  86  67  88  68 /  80  60  50  50  40
LORDSBURG               68  87  68  91  68 /  90  70  50  50  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM ZONES 022>025-030>032 FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
TX ZONES 055-056 FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

02/20 MACBLAIN/NOVLAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1030 AM MDT FRI AUG 4 2006

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-051630-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1030 AM MDT FRI AUG 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
ARROYO/ROADWAY RESIDENTIAL FLOODING. WATER LEVELS IN THE RIO GRANDE
AND GILA RIVER REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH ...ALTHOUGH NOT IN FLOOD STAGE
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN
RIVER OR STREAM FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
FOCUS OF THE ACTIVITY MAY SHIFT TOWARD AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT SURFACE
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE AREA TO ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD CONTACT THE EL PASO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
IF SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY RAIN OCCURS AT THEIR LOCATION.