Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Kansas City, MO

000 
WGUS73 KEAX 301801
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
101 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

MOC121-301811-
MACON MO-
101 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MACON
COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 4003 9235 3995 9235 3995 9229 3973 9230
      3984 9254 4003 9264

$$

DB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1000 AM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EXTREME NERN
GRIDS. ISENTROPIC LIFT...H3 DIVERGENCE AND SHORTWAVE IN NERN IA WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTN FOR THE NERN GRIDS DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

DB

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

323 AM...
A VORTICITY MAXIMA OVERTOPPING THE WESTERB RIDGE HAS HELPED SPARK
SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
STORMS ARE CLOSELY TIED TO MASS CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE 850MB
JET. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO CROP UP OVER
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS NEAR A SHARP THETA-E
GRADIENT BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB. AS THE VORTICITY MAX OVER
MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD...I WOULD EXPECT COVERAGE OVER
EASTERN IOWA TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY SINCE LOW LEVEL JET PROGS FROM THE NAM
KEEP 850MB WINDS BLOWING AT 25KT TO 30KT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO ILLINOIS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RUC AND NAM PROG VERY LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI...SO I HAVE LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS IN THE KIRKSVILLE AREA
TODAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL KEEP THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES IN A PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO
700MB WILL PREVENT DEWPOINTS FROM REACHING SEASONAL NORMALS. DESPITE
THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...IT IS HARD TO
GET EXCITED ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WHEN SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 30F DEGREES OR MORE.
850MB DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE JUST AS WOEFUL WITH 8C TO 10C
FORECAST BY THE NAM THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH BASED CONVECTION ON THE
FRONT CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FETCH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM THE HIGH MEXICAN PLATEAU
TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FALLING OUT OF
TEN THOUSAND FOOT BASES WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. SINCE THE CHANCES
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN A SET UP LIKE THIS IS LOW...I HAVE
LIMITED CHANCES TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

KOCH

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
558 AM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-011100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
558 AM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S IN WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MISSOURI TODAY...AS WELL AS EASTERN KANSAS. LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH WILL TEMPER THE SEVERITY OF
THE HEAT TODAY...BUT PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THE HEAT TODAY COULD BE
DANGEROUS FOR THE ELDERLY AND INDIVIDUALS WITH HEALTH PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE MID
90S WILL BE COMMON OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT
OVER FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND MISSOURI. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

KOCH