Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 PM CST SAT MAR 10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1216 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-121730-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
1216 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS ALLOWED WARM AND MOIST AIR TO
WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.
THE WARM AND MOIST AIR SHOULD AID INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA. THE PRIMARY THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 92 IN IOWA... IN ALL OF
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI... AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. ENOUGH WIND SHEAR IS PRESENT TO ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL EVOLVE INTO A LINE OF STORMS
LATER IN THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL... ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
THE STORMS EVOLVE INTO A LINE IN THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT... ALTHOUGH THE GREATER THREAT FOR TORNADOES
EXISTS IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ON SUNDAY... A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FOR THE AREA
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN ALLOW SUPERCELL STORMS TO DEVELOP
IN THE AREA. WITH MORE MOISTURE TOMORROW THAN TODAY AS WELL AS
STRONGER WIND SHEAR... THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS... AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. PLEASE
STAY TUNED TO KEEP ABREAST OF FORECAST UPDATES AS THIS SCENARIO
EVOLVES.

ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... A DISTURBANCE FROM THE PACIFIC WILL
BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. IT IS TOO EARLY TO ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THIS WEEK MAY CAUSE
LOCAL RIVERS TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE RISES. CURRENT RIVER LEVELS
ARE RUNNING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS
THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL AS
TOMORROW. PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN THE QUAD CITIES.

MAYES