Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Quad Cities, IA

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1135 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-231000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
1135 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL
IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER SOUTHEAST
IOWA...ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MAINLY AFTER 1 PM
THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THE COMBINATION
OF WIND SHEAR AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL ALLOW FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS TO
DEVELOP INTO ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IF CLOUD COVER CAN DECREASE
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 60S. LATEST THINKING
SUGGESTS THAT THESE PARAMETERS AND THUS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR HIGHEST SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KEOKUK IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST IOWA...TO STERLING IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.  EVEN IN
THIS AREA...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUICKLY DEVELOPING SPIN UP
TORNADOES...AND HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES. ONCE THEY FORM...THE
STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE VERY QUICK MOVING AT SPEEDS OF 40 TO
50 MPH. A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS FARTHER SOUTHEAST...
FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. STAY TUNED FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST OUT OF MISSOURI.  A THIS TIME...THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA SATURDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.  THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS MUCH OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.  THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS
TO BE FROM HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF KEOKUK IOWA TO STERLING
ILLINOIS.

ERVIN/12