Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
332 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE THIS MORNING IS STRONG MCS OVER NEB.  RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE MCS IS MAKING A RIGHT TURN AND MOVING MORE
ENE OR E...AND LAST COUPLE OF SCANS INDICATE WEAKENING TREND.
PERSISTENT AREA OF STRENGTHENING TSRA HAS MOVED ACROSS NRN IA THIS
MORNING AS WELL...AND SMALLER CELLS WERE DEVELOPING ROUGHLY ALONG A
LINE FROM DEWITT IA TO PRINCETON IL.  RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THOSE
AREAS OF CONVECTION MAY BE TRYING TO LINK INTO A BAND.  SUBJECTIVE
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK WARM FRONT FEATURE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN THROUGH WI.  850MB MOISTURE HAD POOLED OVER
SRN MN/NRN IA.  500MB ANALYSIS INDICATED SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES...INCLUDING ONE OVER IA/NWRN MO/KS...ONE IN THE CTRL
DAKOTAS...AND TROUGH AXIS ACROSS MT/ID/UT...AS WELL AS AN UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS MB/SASK/MT.  UPPER-LEVEL JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WAS
DIRECTED TOWARD ERN NEB/WRN IA...WITH JET CURVING ACROSS
MN/WI/MI/OH/PA.  07Z MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE LOW EXTENDS
FROM ERN NEB SWWD TOWARD NWRN KS.  SFC WARM FRONT WAS EVIDENT FROM
ERN NEB TO NEAR KCNC TO KGBG TO KVYS...WITH VERY MOIST POOL OF
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS IA/IL.

PROFOUND LACK OF MODEL ABILITY TO DEPICT ONGOING CONVECTION THIS
MORNING... AS STRONG MCS OVER NEB/WRN IA DOES NOT SHOW UP IN ANY OF
THE MODELS.  THIS OBVIOUSLY CREATES A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
RESOLUTION OF THE NEXT 12-24 HR AND REALLY IN ALL OF THE RUNS.  AS A
RESULT...FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE AND BASED MAINLY ON PATTERN
RECOGNITION AND PERSISTENCE AS WELL AS BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.
ELEVATED TSRA CURRENTLY DEVELOPING SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
MORNING...AND EXPECT MCS TO PERSIST THROUGH MORNING AS
WELL...ENTERING THE CWA BY MID-MORNING.  HAVE POPS IN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...TAPERING TO CHANCES AS
ACTIVITY FIZZLES AND MOVES EASTWARD DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON.  FAVORED LOCATION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING DEPENDS STRONGLY ON LOCATION OF WARM FRONT...WHICH
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME PROGRESSING NORTH INTO CLOUD DEBRIS.  EXPECT
IT TO LINGER ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER OR ACTUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD BACK
INTO MO.  LOWER CAPES N OF THE BOUNDARY WOULD LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WHILE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
DEVELOP TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS
SOUTH WITH THEORY THAT FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA.  TEMPS TODAY
ARE AGAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO MUDDY THE
FORECAST...AND HAVE GONE TO LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR TODAY.  HAVE
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ON FRI AS SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM
AND ECMWF HAVE INDICATED PRECIP AS A WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET MOVES ACROSS CWA.  WITH SO
MUCH MOISTURE IN THE AIR...HARD TO LEAVE FORECAST DRY GIVEN THAT
MUCH SUPPORT FOR PRECIP.  DID KEEP SAT INTO SUN DRY AS HIGH SHOULD
BE BETTTER ENTRENCHED IN THE CWA WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION SAT.  RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN AGAIN SUN AS HIGH PULLS EASTWARD...BUT NEXT FRONT IS
STILL WELL UPSTREAM ON SUN.  OVERALL...KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
AND KEPT PERSISTENCE OF FORECAST FROM LAST SEVERAL MORNINGS.

MADE NO CHANGES TO DAYS 4-7.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

MAYES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
505 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-111015-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
505 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN IOWA
AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS SLOW-MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS LINGER ACROSS SMALL AREAS FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME.
THE HEAVY RAINS MAY PRODUCE PONDING IN ROADWAYS AND LOW-LYING
AREAS...AS WELL AS RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS. AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 ARE MOST AT RISK THIS MORNING.

LATER TODAY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT.
THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN AS STORMS MOVING
FROM THE WEST WILL AFFECT ITS POSITION...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER EXTENDING INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
WHERE THESE STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING NORTH OF A LINE FROM
FAIRFIELD IOWA TO GALESBURG ILLINOIS...AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING SOUTH OF THAT LINE.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
517 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 E MARION              42.03N 91.57W
08/10/2006  E60 MPH          LINN               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CORNER OF HWY 151 AND HWY 13. WINDS ESTIMATED 55-60 MPH.

&&

MAYES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
518 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 AM     TSTM WND GST     MARION                  42.03N 91.59W
08/10/2006  E70.00 MPH       LINN               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED 60-70 MPH.

&&

MAYES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
526 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 AM     HAIL             1 N MARION              42.05N 91.59W
08/10/2006  E0.88 INCH       LINN               IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL ON COUNTY HOME RD 1.5 MI W OF

            HWY 13. ALSO TORRENTIAL RAIN AND WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH.

&&

MAYES