Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
712 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AS THE LLJ TILT TOWARD THE AREA.  THIS TREND IS
SHOWN BY PREVIOUS MODELS TO CERTAIN DEGREES WITH OR WITHOUT
SATURATION.  SINCE IT LOOKS TO FOLLOW THE WET SOLUTION...WE HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS FOR SCATTERED STORMS IN IOWA.  ALSO...THE MCS OVER
THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN HAS NOW BEGUN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST.  THIS
IS NOT HANDLED BY ANY MODEL...AND SHOULD IT NOT DIE SOON...A MAJOR
UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES MAY BE NEEDED.  ...ERVIN...

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC AND MSAS ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING RING OF 70+ SFC DPTS
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA AND GRT LKS RIDGE. AS THIS
RIDGE RETREATS EAST AND SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT MAIN UPPER
WAVE IN MEAN WESTERLIES PROPAGATES EAST...THESE HIGH SFC MOISTURE
FIELDS WILL SLOSH BACK ACRS THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH AS SSE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW ORGANIZES. IF FULL INSOLATION WOULD ACCOMPANY THE
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND AMBIENT TEMPS WOULD REACH THE WARMER
THERMAL GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WOULD
RETURN TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WILL GO WITH
THE LOWER TEMP GUIDANCE BANKING ON SOME RETURN FLOW AC AND POSSIBLE
DEBRIS FROM CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS UPSTREAM. A FEW ELEVATED/HIGH BASED
SHOWERS MAY EVEN DEVELOP ACRS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN IA BY MIDDAY AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL...THE SOUTHERN CWA COULD REACH THE
MID 90S WITH LOW TO MID 70 DPTS AND TICKLE THE 105 HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA MARK FOR A FEW HOURS BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY.

MAIN FCST CONCERN THIS GO AROUND IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE MCS
TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. IN A NUTSHELL...ENHANCED/
INCREASING LLJ AHEAD OF INCOMING WAVE WILL LOOK TO IMPINGE ON
TIGHTENING BOUNDARY AND OUTFLOW REMNANTS FROM ONGOING ELEVATED MCS
NOW PUSHING ACRS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.
ACCEPTED CONVECTIVE SPAWNING GROUNDS ALL POINTING ACRS NORTH CENTRAL
IA AND SOUTHERN MN BORDER REGION...WITH PROGGED LLVL THTA-E ADVECTION
AND CONVERGENCE OFF THE CHARTS IN THAT REGION. WESTERLY FLOW IN THE
H8-H7 MB LAYER WILL PUMP UP WARM WEDGE/CAP ACRS MUCH OF IA...KEEPING
DEEP CONVECTION LOCALLY AT BAY ACRS MUCH OF THE STATE FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...AGAIN UNTIL STORMS FIRE ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF BUILDING
WARM DOME IN VCNTY OF APPROACHING UPPER WAVE AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF
UPPER JET EFFECT. INITIAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE SUPERCELLULAR IN
NATURE ALONG MN/IA BORDER...AND EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE MCS WITH MAIN
STEERING THICKNESSES PROBABLY SHUTTLING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO
AT LEAST THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA LATER THIRD EVENING AS IT
CONTINUES TO FEED ON SUBSTANTIAL LLVL JET/THTA-E FEED. DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS INTO THE NORTHERN CWA...AND TORNADIC
THREAT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF MAIN WARM FRONT LINGERS ACRS
PORTIONS THIS AREA AND A CELL MAINTAINS AND ENFLAMES ALONG THIS
FEATURE. STOUTNESS OF CAP SHOULD ERODE CONVECTION AS IT TRIES TO PUSH
SOUTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR...WITH LINGERING SVR THREAT TRANSLATING TO
HAIL WITH ELEVATED SOUTHWARD PUSHING STORMS. THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA
MAY ONLY EXPERIENCE DECAYING ELEVATED DEBRIS-SHOWERS BY LATE
TONIGHT-EARLY THU MORNING.

WITH THE MAIN SFC BOUNDARY LINGERING ACRS THE SOUTHERN CWA ON THU...
WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3S OF THE CWA. TEMPS
TRICKY WITH BOUNDARY/IES AND DEBRIS HAVING TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
...AND MAY GO WITH HAPPY MEDIUM OF MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST OF THE
LOCAL FCST AREA..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
745 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-201000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
745 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER NORTHEAST IOWA TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN TODAY...
WITH HEAT INDICES SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR RANGING FROM
100 TO 105 DEGREES BY MID AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN IOWA.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY OR REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN IOWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON WHERE THESE
STORMS FIRE UP...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO THEN
MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. LATEST
INDICATIONS SUGGEST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR
RAPIDS...TO CLINTON AND STERLING WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE OF
EXPERIENCING SOME OF THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY FROM 7 PM CDT
TO 1 AM OR SO. WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE AREA...THERE
WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...
PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF 70 TO 80 MPH...AND LARGE
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT
AREAS MORE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCING THE HIGHER END WINDS ARE ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM VINTON...TO ANAMOSA AND MOUNT CARROLL. A
BUILDING WARM WEDGE OF AIR ALOFT WILL ACT TO CAP THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA TODAY...AND MAY LIMIT STRONG STORMS
FROM MAKING THEIR WAY MUCH SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED NORTHEAST IOWA FOR A
MODERATE RISK...AND THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL IOWA...AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. A CONFERENCE CALL FOR EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL BE CONDUCTED
LATER THIS MORNING.  DETAILS ON THE TIMING OF THIS CALL WILL BE
ANNOUNCED BY 9 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FLARE UP ON THURSDAY SOUTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM CARTHAGE...TO PRINCETON ILLINOIS. BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BY TONIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.

ERVIN/12

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