Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
233 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2006

.DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
REGION AND LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF WEEK. THIS MORNING...
DEFINED UPPER TROUGH WAS SEEN STRENGTHENING FROM ONTARIO TO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. EMBEDDED CENTERS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY WERE DIGGING AT
BASE OF TROUGH WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT NOTED OVER SOUTHERN MN/WI
BORDER...W-SW IA...AND MOVING INTO W CENTRAL IL AT MIDDAY. AT
SURFACE...INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED FROM TN VALLEY TO SW WI. THIS WAS
ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF THE MS RIVER
WITH DEWPOINTS POOLING IN LOWER 60S. SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING AT DVN
INDICATED A WEAK CAP LOCALLY WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRYING SINCE THE
12Z SOUNDING.

IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVERHEAD. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAS SHOWN SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUNSHINE OVER WESTERN
2/3RDS OF CWA TODAY IN SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND NORTHERN IL
SHORTWAVE. DESPITE THE SUN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY REACHED
70S WITH ISOLATED READINGS NEAR 80 IN FAR SOUTH DUE TO COLD
ADVECTION ON LIGHT NW WINDS. THIS IS KEEPING SBCAPES AS INDICATED BY
LAPS BELOW 1000 J/KG WITH ONLY FAR SE IA INTO NE MO/W CENTRAL IL IN
1500 J/KG RANGE AT 19Z. AREA 88DS SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER VORT MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL IA INTO
EASTERN IA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND
LIMITED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN MAINLY PULSE TYPE
STORMS SO FAR WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND ONLY A FEW REPORTS OF PEA SIZE
HAIL IN CLUSTER THAT EXITED TO EAST AT MIDDAY AND THOSE UPSTREAM IN
DMX CWA. SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS CWA
AIRMASS WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. MAIN
THREATS CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL...UP TO QUARTER SIZE...AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR LIMITED TO MAINLY
MID LEVELS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS...EXCEPT
FOR AREAS CLOSEST TO CENTER OF DEVELOPING UPPER LOW THAT SHIFTS TO
NE-E CENTRAL IA LATE AFTERNOON...WHERE SOME LOW TOPPED TYPE
CONVECTION COULD SPIN UP A WEAK TORNADO. THE SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL
RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

SHORT TERM MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LOW SLIDING S-SE TO NEAR
STL BY 00Z TUESDAY. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN EVENING. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
SCATTERED THROUGH MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO HIGHS ONLY IN 70S. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
TUESDAY WITH RESPECT TO SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/POTENTIAL UPPER LOW
ROTATING DOWN LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY. GFS REMAINS
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND GENERALLY FAVOR A WEAKER MID
WEEK REINFORCING WAVE AND THEN MORE PROGRESSIVE LATE WEEK PATTERN
SHOWN BY ECMWF AND UKMET. BLENDED THIS ECMWF TO THE SLOWER GFS IN
GRIDS...KEEPING CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WED NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
KEPT NEAR TO BELOW GUIDANCE AND CLIMO WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO 70S TO
NEAR 80 THROUGH MOST OF WEEK. FOR NEXT WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO EAST COAST WITH
WESTERN RIDGE GRADUALLY FLATTENING FOR LOCAL WARMING TREND. BROUGHT
IN SILENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET SETTING UP ALONG US/CAN
BORDER.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

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ILC011-252230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
431 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2006

...SEVERAL FUNNEL CLOUDS REPORTED IN NORTHEAST BUREAU COUNTY...

AT 415 PM CDT...THERE WERE SEVERAL PUBLIC REPORTS OF FUNNEL
CLOUDS IN NORTHEAST BUREAU COUNTY NEAR THE COMMUNITIES OF
BEDFORD...NORMANDY AND YORKTOWN. THE FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING AT
THE SOUTH END OF A NEARLY STATIONARY LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY.

FUNNEL CLOUDS OF THIS TYPE ARE TYPICALLY SHORT LIVED AND RARELY
TOUCHDOWN. THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THESE FUNNELS ARE DEVELOPING
IN DO NOT SUPPORT STRONG...DAMAGING TORNADOES. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL FUNNEL CLOUDS IN NORTHEAST BUREAU
COUNTY BETWEEN NEW BEDFORD AND WALNUT THROUGH 530 PM.

IF FUNNEL CLOUDS DO TOUCH DOWN...THEY SHOULD BE ON THE GROUND ONLY
BRIEFLY AND PRODUCE MINIMAL...IF ANY DAMAGE. HOWEVER...IF
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION...MOVE INDOORS
TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
SITUATION. PLEASE FORWARD REPORTS OF FUNNEL SIGHTINGS TO THE NEAREST
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4156 8980 4135 8986 4124 8948 4157 8949

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