Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
335 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...
GRAVITY WAVE HAS PROPAGATED EAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND ENCOUNTERING UNCAPPED MOD/HIGH INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HIGH CAPE/LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED
PULSE TYPE SEVERE WITH THREATS OF LARGE HAIL PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE
AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN MN THROUGH NORTHWEST IA INTO SOUTHEAST NE. FRONT THROUGH
MCCOOK NE WHICH OLD FORECASTER RULE OF THUMB SUGGESTS FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO CWA WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS. PROBLEM TONIGHT IS WITH PCPN CHCS.
AFTER EARLY EVE ISOLATED CONVECTION...FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT BACK TO THE
WEST WITH FRONT. CONCERNS WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST WITH NO COHERENT
TRIGGER ASIDE FROM APPROACHING FRONT. CAN/T RULE OUT MCV BEING SPAWNED
FROM WESTERN MO COMPLEX WHICH WOULD TRY TO LIFT N OVERNIGHT IN S/SW FLOW.
FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO KEEP LIKELY POPS FAR WEST WITH APPROACHING FRONT
AND SIDED WITH CHC ELSEWHERE. WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS...STRUGGLE WITH
GUIDANCE MINS WHICH ARE 1-2 CATS COOLER THAN WE/VE SEEN PAST COUPLE
OF MORNINGS... SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE AND COULD STILL BE COOL.

TUE-WED WILL SEE SLOW MOVING FRONT MEANDERING THROUGH CWA WITH WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS LIKELY. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING GIVEN DEEP LLVL MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND FIELDS.
MANY LOCATIONS BY 12Z THURS SHOULD EASILY HAVE RECEIVED 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF 3-5+ INCHES WITH REPETITIVE CONVECTION.
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH WED SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH MOD/HIGH CAPE AND WEAK
SHEAR...FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED CONVECTION
UNLESS COHERENT UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN TERMS OF SHORTWAVE COMES INTO PLAY...
WHICH ECMWF SUGGESTS POTENTIAL ON WED. TEMPS WILL BE CHALLENGING WITH
CLOUDS/PCPN AND FRONT IN VICINITY. OVERALL WENT WARMER EAST ON TUE AND
COOLER WEST...THEN COOLER ALL AREAS ON WED WITH FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH
BY EVE.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL FEATURE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH RIDGE IN THE WEST
AND LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.
HAVE KEPT PERIOD DRY FOR NOW WITH NO REAL COHERENT SIGNAL FOR PCPN BUT
MODEL SMOOTHING/DAMPENING OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE.
NORTHWEST FLOW TYPICALLY ACTIVE AND GIVEN LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING FEEL
AT SOME POINT DURING PERIOD WILL SEE A THREAT FOR PCPN... JUST CAN/T PIN
DOWN QUITE YET.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
500 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-301000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
500 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE SEEN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. HEAT INDICES SHOULD PEAK IN THE 90
TO 95 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST
OF A KEOKUK IOWA TO STERLING ILLINOIS LINE. THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY
STORM WOULD BECOME SEVERE IS LOW.

TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. IF ANY
STORMS WOULD BECOME SEVERE...THE BEST CHANCES WOULD BE WEST OF A
OELWEIN TO OTTUMWA LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME
HEATING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
548 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 PM     HAIL             1 N COLONA              41.50N 90.35W
05/29/2006  E0.88 INCH       HENRY              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ON ROUTE 6 1/2 MILE NORTH OF COLONA. WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED
            AT 60 MPH WITH NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

0313 PM     HAIL             COLONA                  41.49N 90.35W
05/29/2006  E0.25 INCH       HENRY              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ON NORTHWEST SIDE OF TOWN, STRONG WINDS WITH HEAVY RAIN
            AND PEA SIZE HAIL.

0322 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     GERMAN VALLEY           42.22N 89.48W
05/29/2006                   STEPHENSON         IL   PUBLIC

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED BY PUBLIC DUE EAST OF GERMAN
            VALLEY.

&&

ELLIOTT

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>