Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1045 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2006

.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS GRAVITY WAVE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MO/IA BORDER. THIS HAS TRIGGERED CONVECTION IN FAR
NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHEAST NE...NORTHWEST MO...AND SOUTHEAST IA. CU
HAVE POPPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL CWA ...LINING UP WELL WITH THE RUC
500-700 OMEGA...BUT LATER ITERATIONS OF THIS FIELD HAVE LITTLE
CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S SHOULD BE ATTAINABLE
THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WHAT LITTLE CAP IS IN
PLACE WILL ERODE. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE...BUT NO CLEAR
TRIGGER AT THIS TIME. ENOUGH POSSIBILITIES IN PLACE BETWEEN
PROPAGATING GRAVITY WAVE...WEAK CAPPING...AND SFC HEATING TO JUSTIFY
INCREASE TO SLIGHT POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA.  ..BARDOU..

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST FROM THE PLAINS. THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRING COOLER
WEATHER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 06Z...THE UKMET HAS A BETTER FEEL FOR THE LOCATION OF THE
PLAINS FRONT THAN THE ETA (TOO SLOW) OR GFS (TOO FAST). SAID FRONT
WILL BECOME MORE PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW WITH TIME WHICH WILL
RESULT IN THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN CONSIDERABLY. AS A RESULT...WILL
FOLLOW THE UKMET CLOSELY.

MAY OR MAY NOT SEE ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWFA. BETTER FORCING IS WEST OF THE CWFA BUT
A WEAK VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. BELIEVE THE UKMET HAS THE RIGHT IDEA IN
STALLING THE FRONT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING IT THROUGH
THE CWFA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

BARDOU/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
500 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-301000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
500 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE SEEN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. HEAT INDICES SHOULD PEAK IN THE 90
TO 95 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST
OF A KEOKUK IOWA TO STERLING ILLINOIS LINE. THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY
STORM WOULD BECOME SEVERE IS LOW.

TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. IF ANY
STORMS WOULD BECOME SEVERE...THE BEST CHANCES WOULD BE WEST OF A
OELWEIN TO OTTUMWA LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME
HEATING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.