Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
205 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE ELONGATED UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS IN THE PROCESS OF DEEPENING
AND CONSOLIDATING /BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED/ TO OUR WEST
OVER WESTERN IA NEXT 12 HRS. LATEST MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS NICE PRES
RISE/FALL COUPLET WITH SFC LOW IN WESTERN MO WITH GREATEST
FALLS OVER FAR NORTHERN MO AND SOUTH CENTRAL IA ATTIM INDICATING
MODELS ON TARGET WITH NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. ENERGY IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MON
AND AID IN PULLING THE LOW NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY 12Z TUE.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH LIFTING
QUICKLY UP INTO THE CWA WITH RADAR SHOWING COVERAGE OF RAIN
DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT... TRANSITIONING TO NORTH/SOUTH BAND WITHIN
ZONE OF LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF 50 KT SOUTHERLY LLJ.
OVERALL... PCPN NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LIKELY TO NOT BE AS PERSISTENT
OR WIDESPREAD LIKE WHAT WE/VE SEEN PAST 18-24 HRS. TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH OCCLUSION TO OUR WEST AND MUCH OF AREA ON COOL SIDE... AND
CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION... REDEVELOPMENT OF PCPN LIKELY AT ALMOST
ANY TIME. PCPN CHARACTER CHANGING FROM STRATIFORM TO SHOWERY AS
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECT IN WITH UPPER LOW PULLING NORTH.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AS WELL ESP SOUTHEAST IA...WEST CENTRAL IL
AND NORTHEAST MO WITH H5 COLD POCKET (-20C) AND RESULTANT STEEPENING
OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS SOUTHEAST CWA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THIS AFTN/EVE. PROBLEMS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL ATTIM IS 1) LACK OF DRYING
AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAIRLY SATURATED COLUMN
AND NO SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUDS APPARENT TO OUR SOUTH/WEST... 2) LOCATION
OF JET WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MO AND IL. SEVERE WX
REPORTS YESTERDAY /SAT/ PLOT ALONG AND SOUTH OF JET AXIS AS ONE WOULD EXPECT.
CONTINUED TREND OF LIMITED DIURNAL SWINGS NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PCPN... FAVORING COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAXES AND WARM SIDE FOR MINS.

NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND MON.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
559 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2006

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-011100-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
559 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH
WESTERN IOWA TODAY AND THIS EVENING...REACHING SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
MONDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL
PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET PULLED
UP AHEAD OF THIS LOW. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUDS
AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE...THUS ANY ISOLATED STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST TODAY. SOUTHEAST...TO
SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGEST THIS MORNING...SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH IN MANY AREAS...AND GUSTING BETWEEN 35 TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES. THIS MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR DRIVERS OF HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES...ESPECIALLY ON EAST...WEST ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS.
BY TUESDAY MORNING...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND
1 INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO NEAR 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE. BECAUSE THIS RAIN WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER A PROLONGED PERIOD
NO FLASH FLOODING OR RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

05

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
429 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     HAIL             ROCK ISLAND             41.48N 90.58W
04/30/2006  E1.00 INCH       ROCK ISLAND        IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MIKEZ

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