Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Detroit, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
752 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

.AVIATION...

QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS HAS FORMED PAST FEW HOURS IN WAKE OF
OVERNIGHT DAMPNESS ONCE HIGHER CLOUDS PULLED OUT. 06Z MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD MIX OUT
SWIFTLY THIS MORNING. TAFS MENTION MVFR IN LIGHT FOG/MIST UNTIL
AROUND 13Z. THEN...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPTING LOWER
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ANY THUNDERSTORM TIMING...BUT HAVE
CONFINED MENTION TO TEMPO GROUP FOR 4 MILES IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH
MVFR CEILINGS FOR TWO HOUR PERIOD RANGING FROM 17Z TO 19Z AT KMBS...
TO 20Z TO 22Z AT KDTW/KDET. EXPECT CLEARING TREND TONIGHT...THOUGH
SOME STRATOCUMULUS OR STRATUS SUGGESTED POSSIBLE BY MODEL SOUNDINGS
OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...JUST MENTIONING 14 HUNDRED SCATTERED BY 04Z TO
06Z. DROPPING DEW POINTS TONIGHT...WITH A LITTLE WIND...SHOULD
THWART FOG FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...ISSUED 356 AM EDT MON

SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL ON TAP TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN RISING PRESSURES
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH BUILDING IN. AT 500 MB...A
SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEHIND THE VORTICITY LOBE/MAXIMA
OF THE PAST OVERNIGHT. LAST BIT OF THIS OVERNIGHT VORTICITY
RELATED SHOWERS CLIPPING THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST AREAS SHOULD HAVE
MOVED OUT SHORTLY...SO NO RESIDUAL FORECAST MENTION.

MOISTURE SEEN IN 850 TO 500 MB LAYER AS PER GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS
MUCH LESS THIS MORNING THEN HIGHER AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DRYING AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BELOW 850 MB...CONSIDERABLE DRYING
THIS MORNING...HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AGAIN BEHIND COLD FRONT
TONIGHT IN PRESENCE OF THERMAL TROUGH. THETA E FIELDS IN LOW TO MID
LEVELS SHOW ONLY SLIGHT REBOUND TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

MODEST THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...SHOULD PROMOTE WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO LOW TO MID 80S
AGAIN...ALSO SUPPORTED BY MODEL T1 TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE
TRAJECTORIES.

LITTLE TO NO OMEGA LIFT TODAY OR TONIGHT AS PER NAM/GFS TIME
SECTIONS. MODEST 850 TO 500 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING...ALSO WITH SLIGHT 850 TO 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS/DEFORMATION AND VERY MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE.

AM KEEPING PREVIOUS FORECAST RATHER INTACT...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS INTO THE
EVENING. INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE GOOD THIS
AFTERNOON...SUCH AS IN TERMS OF LOW LIFTED INDICES AND FAIRLY ROBUST
CAPES...AS MORNING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS OVERCOME. K INDICES RAMP
BACK UP INTO THE MID 30S...AND TOTAL TOTALS INTO THE 50S INCLUDING
VERTICAL TOTALS CLOSE TO 30. WIND FIELDS NOT EXPECTED AS ROBUST AS
YESTERDAY...YET A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET DOES DEVELOP OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN AT LEAST RESPECTABLE WIND FIELD AND GOOD
INSTABILITY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...
PARTICULARLY FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...ISSUED 356 AM EDT MON

ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP AS PACIFIC ENERGY TRACKS ALONG THE
NORTHERN CONUS BORDER IN THE FAST SEMI-ZONAL FLOW. WE SHOULD
HAVE AT LEAST ONE TRANQUIL DAY ON TUESDAY...AS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENT FLOW ALLOWS A SURFACE HIGH TO SETTLE OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. NOT SEEING MUCH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT STILL
THINK WE SHOULD SEE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT BY/DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DESPITE THE JUNE SUNSHINE...IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY NOT EVEN MIX
UP TO 850 MB WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ON TOP OF US. BASED ON
GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS TEMPS WILL COME UP JUST SHY OF 80 DEGREES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DESPITE 850 MB TEMPS OF 10 C.

MAIN FOCUS FOR WEDNESDAY IS DETERMINING WHAT HAPPENS TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW TRACKS ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT RACES OFF TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...MOVING AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE
SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO TAKING OVER. NONE-THE-LESS...GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 00Z PARALLEL NAM AND GFS INDICATING SOME SEMBLANCE OF A
SURFACE LOW...OR A WARM FRONT AT THE VERY LEAST...MOVING THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATING A HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY...BLYR CAPES 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. THROW IN SOME STRONG MID
LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...AND YOU HAVE THE INGREDIENTS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ILLUSTRATED IN THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK BY SPC.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS TO 50 PERCENT FOR WEDNESDAY. MAXES
ARE TRICKY WITH THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION ARRIVING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BREAKS TO SUPPORT
80S WITH A HEALTHY SHOT OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RAISING 850 MB
TEMPS TO 18 C OR SLIGHTLY BETTER BY DAYS END.

NOT MUCH TO LATCH ONTO FOR THURSDAY AS RATHER DIFFUSE SURFACE COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY...PER
00Z EUROPEAN. MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE OHIO
VALLEY ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS. NOT TOTALLY SOLD ON THIS YET...AND
PREFER TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS TO SOUTH...PUSHING SOUTH OF THE
BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE MEAN LONGWAVE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE A
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENSION
OF THE TROUGH REACHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRY FORECAST AND CALL FOR TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BE A LITTLE SHARPER...BACKING THE FLOW ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...DWD
SHORT TERM...DWD
LONG TERM....SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

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