Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Detroit, MI
NWS Detroit, MI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 25, 2006, 6:16 PM EDT for Shiawassee County, Michigan. It was in force for 47 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 25, 2006, 6:16 PM EDT (22:16 UTC)
- Expired
- May 25, 2006, 7:03 PM EDT
- In force
- 47 min
- Issued by
- NWS Detroit, MI
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Shiawassee County, MI
The radar
The Detroit radar (KDTX), 57 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The watch it was issued in
The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 3:14 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | 6 hr |
The nearest sounding before it
Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 58 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1108 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 17 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 85 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 59 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS53 KDTX 252216 SVRDTX MIC155-252330- /O.NEW.KDTX.SV.W.0039.060525T2216Z-060525T2330Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 616 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SHIAWASSEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN * UNTIL 730 PM EDT * AT 609 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DURAND...OR ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTH OF OWOSSO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... DURAND BY 635 PM EDT... 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEW LOTHROP BY 715 PM EDT... A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. REMEMBER...TORNADOES CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO DEVELOP RAPIDLY IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF THREATENING WEATHER IS OBSERVED...MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER FROM THE WEATHER IN A STRONG BUILDING. STAY INSIDE AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. LAT...LON 4304 8412 4278 8421 4280 8395 4314 8394 $$ DEG /
2 follow-up statements
000 WWUS53 KDTX 252236 SVSDTX SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 636 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006 MIC155-252330- /O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-060525T2330Z/ SHIAWASSEE MI- 636 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT FOR SHIAWASSEE COUNTY... AT 634 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DURAND...OR ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OWOSSO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... LENNON BY 655 PM EDT... A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. LAT...LON 4297 8404 4284 8406 4280 8393 4303 8393 $$
000 WWUS53 KDTX 252303 SVSDTX SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 702 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006 MIC155-252312- /O.CAN.KDTX.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-060525T2330Z/ SHIAWASSEE MI- 702 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006 ...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SHIAWASSEE COUNTY IS CANCELLED... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED. THUS...THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS WERE STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. LAT...LON 4297 8404 4284 8406 4280 8393 4303 8393 $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 25, 3:31 PM EDT, 2 hours 45 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 25, 3:31 PM EDT, 2 hours 45 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 331 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY 12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW AN UPPER LOW OVER WISCONSIN...WITH A SHORTWAVE SWINGING AROUND IT THROUGH ILLINOIS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER WISCONSIN...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL LOWER AND A COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS ILLINOIS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A COUPLE AREAS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...ACROSS INDIANA/OHIO AND FARTHER NORTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. MORNING STRATUS HAS MIXED OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOW 60S. THIS HAS LED TO MIXED LAYER CAPES OF OVER 1500J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH RAPIDLY DECREASING CIN. SPECIAL 18Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWS A DECENT LOW-LEVEL CAP IN PLACE...WITH A SURFACE TEMP OF 82 OR SO NEEDED TO GET AROUND IT. AREAS ACROSS THE THUMB HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST INSOLATION TODAY WITH UP TO CFS 81F...AND WITH EXTRA PUSH ALONG THE WARM FRONT STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED. EXPECT THIS DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE...INITIALLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE WILL STICK WITH NUMEROUS TSRA THROUGH MID EVENING... THEN WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT BUT THUNDER POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WHILE THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH THE THE CORE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY... THERE IS PRETTY GOOD LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY WITH A BACKED SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE THERE IS A TORNADO POTENTIAL IN ADDITION TO WIND/HAIL WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP. && .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS STILL ON TAP FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH POSITION AND STRENGTH OF BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THIS TIME WILL REMOVE MENTION OF LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING AS STABILIZING NORTH FLOW...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING MID LEVELS PLUNGING THROUGH THE CWA BY 00Z SATURDAY. RIDGE AXIS TO RAPIDLY AMPLIFY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS STRONG TROF DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN 850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO 18C BY SUNDAY AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WORKING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS A RESULT ANTICIPATE MCS DEVELOPMENT AND CONVECTION TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION AS WELL. STILL ANTICIPATE DRY CONDTIONS THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS DIMINISH STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL CAP...BUT BELIEVE MODELS ARE UNDER DONE. STRENGTH OF CAP WILL DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON POSITION OF TRAPPED/CLOSED LOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IF LOW REMAINS NEAR THE COAST OR INLAND...THEN SIGNIFICANT LATENT HEAT RELEASE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING THE RIDGE EVEN MORE. IF THIS SOLUTION VERIFIES...THEN TEMPS COULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THOUGH MODELS INDICATE RIDGE FLATTENING OUT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. FRONT ALSO BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL FLOW AND AS A RESULT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SO WILL LINGER PRECIP INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SLOW MOVING CONVECTION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING TWO INCHES...WILL ALSO CREATE A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && AVIATION...ISSUED 132 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006 SURFACE LOW OVER WISCONSIN WILL TRACK ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. MVFR STRATUS AHEAD OF IT HAS QUICKLY BEGUN TO MIX OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...LEAVING VFR CLOUDS GENERALLY 6-10KFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN LOWER ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE QUICKLY JUMPED NORTHWARD WITH BETTER INSOLATION AS CLOUDS MIX OUT. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF MBS GIVEN CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOVEMENT TO THE BOUNDARY. STILL LOOKING FOR THUNDER CHANCES ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SIMILAR TIMING IN TAFS WITH TSRA MENTIONED FOR A TWO HOUR WINDOW BETWEEN 20-24Z. PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UPSTREAM BEHIND THE LOW...WITH MVFR/IFR CLOUDS RETURNING OVERNIGHT...LOWEST CIGS FARTHER NORTH AT FNT/MBS CLOSER TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL ALSO STICK WITH THE LONGER/STRONGER MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE LOW. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && SHORT TERM...BRAVENDER AVIATION.....BRAVENDER LONG TERM....GSS YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
Hazardous weather outlook, May 25, 3:27 PM EDT, 2 hours 49 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 327 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-260530- MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER- ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE- 327 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT TORNADO WATCH 394 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ISOLATED TORNADOS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM. THUNDERSTORMS MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE TO LAKE HURON TONIGHT... BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING. A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS OCCURRED. LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441>443-462>464-260530- ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR- MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE-OUTER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY- PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI- PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- LAKE HURON OFFSHORE BEYOND 5 NM FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI- LAKE HURON OFFSHORE BEYOND 5 NM FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI- LAKE HURON OFFSHORE BEYOND 5 NM FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- 327 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ST CLAIR...THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE HURON. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT TORNADO WATCH 394 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ISOLATED TORNADOS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM. THUNDERSTORMS MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE TO LAKE HURON TONIGHT... BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING. A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS OCCURRED. KAHL YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
In the hours before
Local storm report, May 25, 3:33 PM EDT, 2 hours 43 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
333 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0245 PM HAIL MARLETTE 43.33N 83.08W
05/25/2006 E1.00 INCH SANILAC MI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
DGLocal storm report, May 25, 5:59 PM EDT, 17 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
559 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0540 PM HAIL NEWPORT 42.00N 83.31W
05/25/2006 E0.75 INCH MONROE MI AMATEUR RADIO
&&
DRCLocal storm report, May 25, 6:15 PM EDT, 1 minute before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
615 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0613 PM HAIL GRAND BLANC 42.93N 83.62W
05/25/2006 E0.75 INCH GENESEE MI AMATEUR RADIO
&&
DRCThe office that day
Everything else NWS Detroit, MI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 3:40 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Sanilac | 24 min |
| May 25, 4:01 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Midland | 29 min |
| May 25, 4:34 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | DTX | 56 min | |
| May 25, 4:35 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Huron | 40 min |
| May 25, 5:01 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Monroe | 59 min |
| May 25, 5:04 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | DTX | 56 min | |
| May 25, 5:27 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | DTX | 24 min | |
| May 25, 5:51 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Wayne | 46 min |
| May 25, 5:56 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | DTX | 35 min | |
| May 25, 6:01 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Washtenaw | 74 min |
| May 25, 6:07 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Genesee | 38 min |
| May 25, 6:11 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Livingston | 64 min |
| May 25, 6:14 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Lenawee | 54 min |
| May 25, 6:26 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Lapeer | 94 min |
| May 25, 6:32 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Oakland | 73 min |
| May 25, 6:34 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | DTX | 86 min | |
| May 25, 6:36 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Monroe | 69 min |
| May 25, 6:46 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Genesee | 68 min |
| May 25, 6:49 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Huron | 41 min |
| May 25, 6:51 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | DTX | 84 min | |
| May 25, 6:57 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Wayne | 60 min |
| May 25, 7:05 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Macomb | 25 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Michigan, 2006Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.