Snow Advisory 8, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 AM CST SUN DEC 31 2006

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR SHOWING SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW QUITE WELL.  IT APPEARS THE
LOW IS LIFTING OUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MODELS HAVE IT PROGGED
BUT THE MODELS STILL ARE WITHING REASON.  AT THE SURFACE THE LOW IS
OVER EXTREME NW MO/SW IA.  THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST MO AND SRN IL WHILE AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS NORTH INTO
WESTERN MN.  DEF ZONE IS BEGINNING TO  SHOW ITSELF NOW AND LOOKS TO
BE SETTING UP OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA AND LIFTING
NORTHEAST.  PRECIP TYPE IS A CONCERN BUT SURFACE OBS IN THE DEF ZONE
TELL THE STORY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME PERIOD OF FREEZING
PRECIP BUT THE COLD AIR IS COMING IN PRETTY FAST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AND SFC OBS ALL NIGHT LONG HAS SHOWN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING PRECIP THEN A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.  OMA HAD RAIN AT
32 DEGREES FOR SPELL.  THE WHOLE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO.  I FELT THAT THE NAM HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
THINGS.  IT ACCURATELY DEPICTED THE HEAVIER WAA/OVERRUNNING PRECIP
COMING UP OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND I BELIEVE IT IS
MORE REALISTIC WITH THE DEF ZONE PRECIP.  I STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE NAM SOLUTION.  WWD GRAPHIC HAS A 6 TO 8 INCH SWATH PAINTED OVER
THE EXTREME NW PART OF THE CWA BUT IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS I
THINK ITS A TAD OVERDONE.  A SNOW ADVISORY WAS POSTED FOR THE AREA
THOUGH AS IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES IN A NARROW SWATH ALONG A
WESTERN FRINGE COUNTIES.  AS FOR TEMPS...WE WILL SEE EARLY HIGHS
WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO THE 30S.

AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY THE MODELS REALLY WEAKEN
THE DEF ZONE AND PRECIP AND PUSH IT EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY.  AS A
RESULT I WAS NOT SO BULLISH ON THE PRECIP AFTER 06Z AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY MORNING.  I DID LOWER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND JUST KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE EAST DURING THE MORNING.  NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT AS WE RETURN TO A DRY AND MILD (FOR
EARLY JANUARY) REGIME.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SNOW ADVISORY FAR NORTHWEST CWA
10 AM UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING.

FAB

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>