Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 132246
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
546 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006

IAC187-132256-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-060413T2315Z/
WEBSTER IA-
546 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEBSTER COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

AT 544 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE EITHER WEAKENED OR
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO
LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
FRIDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4241 9393 4221 9394 4222 9348 4250 9349

$$

IAC079-132315-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-060413T2315Z/
HAMILTON IA-
546 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAMILTON
COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 544 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WALNUT SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES
NORTH OF BOONE...OR 23 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT DODGE...AND MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
  NEAR STANHOPE BY 555 PM CDT.
  NEAR RANDALL BY 610 PM CDT.

THE LOCATION OF ELLSWORTH IS ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE
OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG
BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STRATFORD.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT 
FRIDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4241 9393 4221 9394 4222 9348 4250 9349

$$

DONAVON

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 132259
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
558 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006

IAC079-132315-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-060413T2315Z/
HAMILTON IA-
558 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAMILTON
COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 556 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WALNUT SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF JEWELL...OR 28 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT DODGE...AND
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
  NEAR JEWELL BY 605 PM CDT.
  NEAR ELLSWORTH BY 610 PM CDT.


AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR REPORTS 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL 2 MILES 
SOUTHEAST OF STANHOPE AT 555 PM.

THE LOCATIONS OF STANHOPE AND RANDALL ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE
OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG
BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF SEVERE WEATHER WAS OBSERVED...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN DES MOINES AT 1-800-759-9276.

LAT...LON 4241 9393 4221 9394 4222 9348 4250 9349

$$

DONAVON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
345 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL JET IS ROUNDING TOP OF LARGE UNSEASONAL CONUS RIDGE WITH
LEFT EXIT REGION DIVERGENCE AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHRT WVS AIDING UVM
FROM NERN IA TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.  STRONG BUT MOISTURE STARVED
THETA-E ADVECTION APPROACHING MS RIVER WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
NOTED FROM MN INTO WI.  19Z SFC ANLYS SHOWS LOW OVER SERN SD WITH
WRMFNT ALG IA/WI BORDER AND TRAILING DRYLINE INTO KS.  60 PLUS
DEWPOINTS PUSHING THROUGH STATE AND MLCAPES 1-3K J/KG OVER ALL BUT
ERN IA AND ADVANCING NEWD.  WEAKEST CIN AND DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE NOTED OVER ERN IA/MO WHERE VSBL STLT IMAGERY SHOWS CU
FIRING.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUN
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THIS EVE.  FEEL BEST
CHANCES WILL BE TO OUR E CLOSER TO DEEPER FORCING...BUT CONSIDERING
WHERE CU IS DEVELOPING HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE WORDING E THROUGH 03Z.
ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE WOULD MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE E.

BY TOMORROW A WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS SRN IA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  AMS BECOMES QUITE UNSTABLE AGAIN WITH MLCAPES OVER 3000
J/KG AND CIN ERODING.  ADEQUATE CONVERGENC AVAILABLE THIS TIME SO
HAVE ADDED CHANCE POPS SERN CORNER INTO THE EVE.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT AND MORE SIGNIFICANT SYS...GFS SEEMS FASTER
THAN ALL OTHER MODELS AND SLOWER SOLUTIONS FAVORED.  WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES...BUT MAINLY TO OUR SW OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING THE SW.  ISENT LIFT SPREADS INTO IA DURING THE
MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING AND THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  FOLLOWING NAM SOLUTION...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO
OTHER MODELS...SUGGESTS CURRENT ERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW REACHING
REACHING MO VALLEY AS A PROGRESSIVE WV WITH ATTENDANT SFC LOW ONLY
SLIGHTLY AHEAD.  INSTABILITY AXIS WRAPS INTO LOW FROM NWRN MO
ADVANCING INTO SWRN IA DURING THE EVE.  WILL NOT BREAK DOWN
DETAILS...BUT PATTERN RECOGNITION...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALL POINT
TOWARD DECENT SVR WX EVENT WITH ALL MODES AND SOME TORNADOES
POSSIBLE.  STRONG QG FORCING ON NOSE OF DRY SLOT SHOULD OVERWHELM
ANY CIN.  SHOULD EXPAND INTO LARGE MCS SAT NIGHT WITH NOSE OF WARM
ADVECTION SURGING INTO IA SO EXPANDING LIKELY WORDING SAT NIGHT.
PCPN MAY LINGER INTO SUN ERN HALF WITH LITTLE CHANGE THAT PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DECENT MIXING AGAIN FRI BUT NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS TODAY SO BASICALLY FOLLOWED A GUIDANCE BLEND WHICH IS
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE RUNNING FCST.  LOWERED FRI NIGHT MINS SEVERAL
DEGREES CLOSER TO WARM END OF GUIDANCE WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  DID NOT WANT TO MAKE TOO BIG OF A CHANGE BUT
MAY HAVE TO GO EVEN FURTHER IN LATER RUNS.  SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUN
SAT TO BOOST TEMPS FOR AT LEAST AWHILE SO WILL RAISE A FEW DEGREES
TOWARD WARMER END OF GUIDANCE ALL BUT NERN WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
MIXED LOW LEVEL TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU
MAIN CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE SYS AFFECTING IA AROUND TUE AND
MODELS HAVE YET TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION.  PAST TWO GFS RUNS
HAVE MADE DRAMATIC CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS ONES AND RECENT EURO/GEM
SOLUTIONS...CLOSING OFF UPPER LOW THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY.   NO
SENSE IN BREAKING DOWN DETAILS WITH MODELS INCONSISTENCIES...BUT
HAVE NOT CHANGED FCST MUCH AS OF YET WITH GENERAL SCENARIO HAVING
CHANCES FOR WARM ADVECTION PCPN MON NIGHT THEN A MORE SFC BASED
THREAT TUE AND TUE EVE FAR E WITH CFP.  HAVE LEFT WED AND REMAINDER
OF FCST DRY FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE LINGERING
POPS WITH SLOW MOVING SYS IF GFS MATERIALIZES OR SRN IA IS AFFECTED
BY SOUTHERN STREAM SHRT WV AS SUGGESTED BY ECMWF.

DID NOT CHANGE TEMPS MUCH.  LAST FEW RUNS OF GFS H85 TEMPS SEEM A
BIT COOL VS ECMWF READINGS AND ENSEMBLE MOS SUPPORTS THIS WARMER
THINKING.  GENERALLY FOLLOWED BLEND OF MOS AND ENSEMBLE MOS AVERAGE
WITH OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FIT ADJACENT OFFICES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

RUSSELL/SMALL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
400 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006

IAZ027-028-037>039-048>050-060>062-073>075-083>086-094>097-142100-
BUTLER-BREMER-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-POLK-
JASPER-POWESHIEK-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-
WAPELLO-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
400 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA
EAST OF A MASON CITY TO LAMONI LINE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 9 PM. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND TO 60 MPH. A
SECONDARY THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE QUITE LIKELY
TO BE SEVERE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST THREAT IN THE 6
PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME SATURDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH A SECONDARY TORNADO
THREAT. VERY HEAVY RAIN MAY LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THEY WILL BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM 5 PM THROUGH 9
PM. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>026-033>036-044>047-057>059-070>072-081-
082-092-093-142100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-
CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-CASS-ADAIR-
MADISON-ADAMS-UNION-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-
400 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA
WEST OF A MASON CITY TO LAMONI LINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL THROUGH 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE QUITE LIKELY
TO BE SEVERE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST THREAT IN THE 6
PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME SATURDAY NIGHT. TORNADOES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WHILE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ALSO LIKELY.
VERY HEAVY RAIN MAY LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM 5 PM THROUGH 9
PM. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

RUSSELL