Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 022046
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
346 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

IAC135-022056-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-060402T2100Z/
MONROE IA-
346 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MONROE COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

AT 344 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
AREA...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. 
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

IF SEVERE WEATHER WAS OBSERVED...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN DES MOINES AT 1-800-759-9276.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4090 9312 4089 9264 4116 9263 4117 9310

$$

VACHALEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
306 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE FIRST PERIOD WITH A BREAK EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER
WESTERN SYSTEM AFFECTS THE STATE MID TO LATE WEEK. CURRENTLY...
COMPLEX SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE STATE WITH SFC LOW NR KCSQ. WARM
FRONT HAS EDGED NORTHWARD TOWARD THE HIGHWAY 92 CORRIDOR AND SOME
FURTHER NORTHWARD DRIFT REMAINS POSSIBLE.  TORNADO THREAT WL REMAIN
ANYWHERE NEAR THIS FRONT AND TO THE SOUTH PRIOR TO LOW PASSAGE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...SEE SHORT TERM WATCHES FOR ADDITIONAL SVR THREAT.
FARTHER NORTH...ELEVATED CONVECTION AND STRATIFORM PCPN TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AS DEFORMATION AREA DEVELOPS ACRS THE STATE AND HAVE
GONE CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THE EVENING.  OTHERWISE...TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF LOW WL BEGIN TO INCREASE WINDS BY
LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS AT 950MB WL BE CLOSE TO 50KTS AND EXPECT
THE STRONG CAA AND SOME DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT TO TAKE WINDS
INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SFC...THEREFORE WL ISSUE ADVISORY FOR ALL
CWA OVERNIGHT AND EXTEND THE EASTERN PORTION INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

DEEPER SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WL SPREAD ACRS THE CWA TOWARD MORNING
ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.  EXPECT RELATIVELY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING AS SFC RIDGE
WORKS TOWARD THE STATE.  QUIET WX THROUGH MONDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF SFC RIDGE AND RETURN TO WAA.  THE
MODELS...WHICH HAD EARLIER BROUGHT PCPN BACK INTO THE STATE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT ARE NOW DELAYING ONSET BY ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. THIS
IS NOT TO UNUSUAL FOR WESTERN TROFS AS JET NEEDS TO ROUND THE BASE
BEFORE APPRECIABLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT.  STILL APPEARS ACTIVE IN THE
THURSDAY TIME FRAME AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THE STATE AHEAD OF
THE EJECTING UPPER LOW.  BOTH EURO AND NOW 12Z GFS LINGER THE UPPER
LOW NEAR IA AND HAVE EXTENDED POPS FURTHER INTO THE DAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 03Z
TO 16Z MONDAY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

COGIL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1133 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

IAZ062-074-075-083>086-093>097-031100-
POWESHIEK-MARION-MAHASKA-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-RINGGOLD-
DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
1133 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
IOWA...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MOUNT AYR TO GRINNELL LINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BEFORE 3 PM. THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE BEST THREAT AREA HAS SHIFTED A BIT MORE
SOUTHWARD...IN THE SOUTHERN MOST ONE OR TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ALONG A WARM FRONT. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE PROJECTED
FAST MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...SPOTTERS SHOULD BE DEPLOYED QUICKLY.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>061-070>073-081-
082-092-031100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-CASS-
ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-ADAMS-UNION-TAYLOR-
1133 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. SOME AREAS MAY SEE HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAIL. AFTER THE
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK.

MYERS