Severe Thunderstorm Warning 307, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 170306
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1004 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2006

IAC063-170315-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0307.000000T0000Z-060917T0315Z/
EMMET IA-
1004 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EMMET COUNTY
UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

AT 1002 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR ESTHERVILLE...OR 13 MILES EAST OF SPIRIT LAKE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EMMET
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF ESTHERVILLE...ESTHERVILLE AIRPORT...
GRUVER AND DOLLIVER.

STREET FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN ESTHERVILLE. TRAINING 
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL MINOR 
FLOODING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING.
ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY
AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A
BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE
OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG
BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4350 9492 4326 9492 4332 9446 4350 9446

$$

JUNGBLUTH

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 170316
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1015 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2006

IAC063-170325-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0307.000000T0000Z-060917T0315Z/
EMMET IA-
1015 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EMMET COUNTY HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE...

AT 1014 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT 
FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF EMMET COUNTY.

REPORT TORNADOES...WIND IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...HAIL LARGER THAN ONE
HALF INCH...OR STORM DAMAGE BY CALLING LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
ASKING THEM TO RELAY THE REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4350 9492 4326 9492 4332 9446 4350 9446

$$

JUNGBLUTH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
250 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...

ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS PLAINS AND MIDWEST NEXT 24 HOURS.
MORNING SFC MAP SHOWS DIFFUSE TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS OVER
WESTERN PLAINS WITH LLVL MOISTURE ALREADY STREAMING NORTH INTO SC
NEBRASKA ATTM AHEAD OF IMPRESSIVE DRY LINE. WINDS REMAIN SSE OVER IA
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 F INCREASING TO MID TO UPR
60S BY TNT. ALOFT CONTINUE TO HAVE INCREASING WIND FIELDS FROM H700
TO H500 WITH WINDS IN THE 50-70 KT RANGE OVR WESTERN IA AND AREAS
NORTHWEST OF THERE.  MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE STILL OVER ROCKIES
WITH 90-120 KT JET INCREASING EASTWARD. 12Z H300 ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA
OF BEST DIFFLUENCE OVER EASTERN SD...SW MINNESOTA...AND NW IA.

SHORT TERM...MODELS AT ODDS WITH OVERALL PROGRESSION OF TNTS EVENT
FOR THE CWA...HOWEVER FEEL THAT SPC 00Z RUN OF WRF AND GFS BOTH HAVE
A BETTER HANDLE ON EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION AS COLD FRONT TREKS
ACROSS THE STATE. SHEAR WITH SYSTEM IS IMPRESSIVE TONIGHT OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH SEVERE STORMS LIKELY OVER SD/MN FOLLOWED BY LINE
FILLING IN ACROSS WESTERN IA THIS EVENING. BEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES
APPEAR TO BE WEST OF AN ALGONA...FORT DODGE...AUDUBON LINE BEFORE 9
PM WITH MORE LINEAR CONVECTION TAKING OVER AS NIGHT PROGRESSES.
STILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING AS STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AT 40-50 MPH AS FRONT PASSES
EAST. THOUGH NOT THE MAIN THREAT...SOME HEAVY RAINERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH A QUICK 1 INCH RAINFALL WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. MOST
COUNTY FFG GUIDANCE ABOVE THESE AMOUNTS AT 2-3 IN SO ANY ISSUES WILL
MAINLY BE URBAN/SMALL STREAM IF ANY. ATTM...BEST DYNAMICS FOR SIG
TOR THREAT REMAIN NW OF CWA THIS EVENT BUT FAR NORTHWEST CORNER
STILL HAS POTENTIAL FOR SOME. AFTER PASSAGE OF FRONT...MUCH COOLER
WEATHER STILL IN STORE FOR STATE. MODELS INDICATING COLD POOL
FARTHER NORTH WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20.
COLDER AIR TO SETTLE ACROSS REGION FOR TUES/WED MORNING WITH SOME
FROST POTENTIAL WED MORNING LOW LYING AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20.

LONG TERM...EXPECT ACTIVE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ADVECTING
THROUGH FLOW WED THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
INTO LATE WEEK. GFS LOOKS TOO FAST AGAIN BY LATE WEEK. WENT WITH
GEM/EURO WITH SYSTEM BRINGING IN COLDER AIR OVER WEEKEND. NO MAJOR
CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED OTHER THAN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
345 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2006

IAZ004-005-015-023-024-033>035-044>047-057>059-070>072-081-082-
092-093-171100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-
CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-CASS-ADAIR-
MADISON-ADAMS-UNION-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-
345 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2006

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF IOWA THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA
ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 169.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH LARGE HAIL TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND A FEW
TORNADOES. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL BE MOVING FROM 40 TO 50 MPH TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM.
HEAVY RAINS MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FROST REMAINS A POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 30. IN ADDITION...SOME NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.
BE PREPARED FOR FAST MOVING STORMS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

IAZ006-007-016-017-025>028-036>039-048>050-060>062-073>075-
083>086-094>097-171100-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-
HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-
DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
345 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA
EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 169.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND
LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FROST REMAINS A POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 30. IN ADDITION...SOME NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA.

COGIL