Severe Thunderstorm Warning 246, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
330 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...

SVR WATCH FOR CENTRAL IOWA COMING OUT SHORTLY...

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CHALLENGES REMAIN IN THIS PACKAGE...NOT SO MUCH FOR IMPENDING HEAT
THAT WILL BE ARRIVING SHORTLY...BUT IN SHORT TERM TRENDS TNT AS A
LOT COMING TOGETHER TO FAVOR SVR STORMS AND POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL.
SFC BOUNDARY ALREADY LIFTING NORTH INTO CENTRAL IA BY 16Z. DEEP
MOISTURE POOLING BELOW H700 THIS AM WITH PWATS 1-1.5 INCHES ATTM
...EXPECTING THIS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE PM/EVEN HOURS. H850
BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH AND THIS SHOULD HELP FOCUS ANY MCS SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME. SVR THREAT INCREASING AS MIDLVL LAPSE RATE...CAPES AND
LOWLVL MOISTURE REMAIN HIGH...THOUGH TNT WE HAVE DRIER AIR ABOVE
H700...UNLIKE THIS PAST MON NIGHT.  MAIN THREAT REMAINS TO BE HAIL
...WIND ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. TNT AS CLUSTER MOVES
OVER THE CWA CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN LIGHT WHICH WOULD AGAIN FAVOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CORRIDOR EITHER SIDE OF A
KSUX-KRBL LINE WOULD BE FAVORED FOR MOST ACTIVE WEATHER WITH
MOD-HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE HERE. AMTS POSSIBLE TO 2-4
INCHES WITH HEAVIER STORMS. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CWA WITH A SECOND
ROUND POSSIBLE. CURRENT WATCH OUT TIL 03Z. STORMS WILL EXIT TO EAST
BY EARLY FRIDAY AM WITH SOME LINGERING ST AND FOG. FRI SHOULD BEGIN
TO WARM UP NICELY...ONCE ST/FOG BURN OFF BY AFTERNOON. WARMEST
READINGS WEST ON FRI. TDS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WELL THOUGH THE
WEEKEND.

LONGER TERM FORECAST STILL FOCUS ON PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAT FOR THE
REGION. MEX/MEN GUIDANCE STILL VERY HIGH INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S
...HOWEVER GFS BASED AND TIMING STILL SUSPECT. GEM/EURO PAINT A
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT PICTURE AND WOULD AGAIN FAVOR WARMEST 2 DAY
PERIODS SAT/SUN AND AGAIN TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK. POSSIBLE NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS KNOCKING RIDGE BACK A TOUCH WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CAP FOR MON/THURS OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS.  EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT LESS CHANCES FOR RAIN
MON TIME FRAME SO WILL LEAVE DRY BUT THUR A DIFFERENT MATTER. COORD
HAS LEFT DRY FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY BEYOND DAY5. OTHER CONCERNS
THIS PERIOD WILL THE BE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. STILL ON THE
BORDER HERE WITH COMPUTED HEAT INDICES OUT TO DAY7...BUT WITH THIS
PAST RAIN EVENT MON NIGHT/TUES AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TNT...POCKETS OF HI IN THE 105+ RANGE
LOOKING POSSIBLE.  QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHERE...SINCE MOST OF THE
RAIN HAS FALLEN EAST OF THE EXPECTED HIGHEST TEMPERATURES THIS
UPCOMING EVENT. WATCH WORD FOR NOW IS WE WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
TUES/WED. SINCE AT WORST ONLY AN ADVISORY IS EXPECTED...NO NEED TO
ISSUE A WATCH ATTM.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SVR WATCH 594 FAR WEST TIL 03Z.
                                ...SVR WATCH 597 CENTRAL TIL 05Z.

REV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
446 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-141115-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
446 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ALL OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN IOWA WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM INTEREST ATE 35
WEST...AND SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 20. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
FOR HAIL OF 2 INCHES OR GREATER IN DIAMETER AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF
70 MPH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THE LIKELIHOOD
IS VERY LOW.  THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER 10 PM. HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO LIKELY WITH SOME OF THE STORMS WITH LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 INCHES OR MORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH 10 PM WEST OF INTERSTATE
35...AND WILL BE LIKELY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 FROM 6 PM THROUGH 1 AM.

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