Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA
TODAY ALONG THE 850 MB CONVERGENCE ZONE. A COUPLE OF SFC BOUNDARIES
ARE NOTED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST
NIGHT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND A STALLED BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL
IA. A SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS IA AND THE SUBSIDENCE
REGION OF THIS IMPULSE IS BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND A
DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE STATE. FOR TONIGHT HAVE FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY TO THE NAM
SOLUTION FOR TONIGHT WITH THE 850 MB FRONT BEGINNING TO LIFT BACK
NORTH TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL IA WITH ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG
THE 310K SFC AND BAND OF THETA-E ADVECTION. 850-300 MB MOST UNSTABLE
CAPES OF 1000 J/KG LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND HAVE EXTENDED CHANCE POPS INTO THIS REGION. THE SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS WITH A FEW STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE...THOUGH SFC INSTABILITY IS
LOWER TODAY. THE WIND THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE EVENING
WITH THE SFC INVERSION BECOMING DIFFICULT TO PENETRATE. A WEAKER CAP
WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND WITH THE BOUNDARY STILL OVER THE AREA
A SHORT WAVE ARRIVING AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON MONDAY THEN GRADUALLY EXITING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE ON MONDAY
WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON
TUESDAY WITH BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER NORTHERN MO WITH ANOTHER POTENT
SHORT WAVE ARRIVING.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. THE ARRIVAL OF
UNSEASONABLY DRY DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW FOR LARGE DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THE PERIOD. HAVE NOT GONE AS COOL AS LAST WEEK AS RAINFALL
WITH THE LATEST SYSTEM AND MATURATION OF CORN CROP AND INCREASING
TRANSPIRATION SHOULD MODIFY INCOMING AIRMASS ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS
FROM FALLING INTO THE 40S. THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD RESULTING IN RETURN FLOW AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED
WITH THE ARRIVAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEYOND THE PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DONAVON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
350 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-031100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-
350 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN IOWA...ALONG AND NORTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 30.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A
SEVERE STORM TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF AN INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE HIGHWAY 30
CORRIDOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.  ACTIVATION MAY BE
NEEDED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IAZ057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-031100-
AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-
WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-
TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
350 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IOWA...SOUTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 30.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AFTER SUNSET.  A SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 34 THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...AND OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE OVERNIGHT.  HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN
DIAMETER AND WINDS OF 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING.
REPORTS WOULD BE APPRECIATED THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT ACTIVATION IS
NOT LIKELY OVERNIGHT.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN MONDAY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

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