Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
345 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SPEED MAX ZOOMING S THRU THE MO RVR VLY INITIATING ENHANCED CU TO
REACH PULSE TSTM STAGE SINCE 230 PM. THIS ACTIVITY WL DIMINISH BY
SUNSET AS COOLING DVLPS AND THE SPEED MAX MOVS OUT. OTRW DCRG CLDS
WITH SOME HAZE OR SMOKE AS WE STAY IN THE NWLY FLOW ALF UNTIL FRI.
WITH THE TROF TO OUR IMMEDIATE E MOVG EWD SLOWLY THRU THE
WEEK...TMPS WL BEGIN TO WRM MORE NOTICEBLY BY FRI AS H5 HGTS RISE TO
588 IN SWRN IA AND THE WRN RDG FLATTENS SOMEWHAT. THIS FLATTENING WL
LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR TSTMS BY LATE FRI INTO SUN WITH THE WRN RDG
REBUILDING ERLY NXT WK. IN THE MEANTIME...A WK LOW LVL BOUNDARY IN
THE SHORTER RANGE MDLS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW STORMS LATE
TMR AFTN NR THE MO BDR INTO THE EVENING. THE SIGNAL AT H8 IS SUBTLE
WITH A WK WSHFT BY 00Z THU. AT THE MOMENT...XPCG BTR PCPN CHCS RIGHT
ACRS THE BDR IN MO. THEN A VRY GRDL UPTICK IN TMPS THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH DEWPTS PUSHING 65 BY FRI. CLASSIC NWD RETURNING WRMFNT FRI
NGT SHOULD SET OFF STORMS IN SRN MN INTO WI FRI NGT WITH SOME
LEAKAGE INTO THE N. IT IS NOT OBVIOUS WHAT WL TRANSPIRE ON SAT. THE
GFS HAS BEEN QUITE STABLE IN THE LAST 3-4 RUNS IN MAINTAINING A
DECENT FNT NE/SW FNT ACRS THE CENTER OF THE STATE AT 18Z. THIS WOULD
MOST LIKELY HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR STORMS OVER THE S/SE HALF OF THE
STATE WITH THE BNDRY HANGING UP OVR NRN MO ON SUN...WITH BEST TSTM
CHCS SUN NGT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

MYERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2006

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-282045-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
340 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20. A
FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE ARE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD IS
STILL UNDER EVALUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DONAVON