Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
355 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2006

.DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...

FROM 12Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THIS
AM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL BE EXITING TODAY. ANOTHER
SYNOPTIC SCALE JET MAX MOVING ONTO NW COAST OF 125-150 KTS. THE
SHORTWAVE AT 250MB EXITING THE UPPER MIDWEST IS FAIRLY DEEP WITH
REFLECTIONS INTO THE LOWER LEVELS AT 700 AND 850MB AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOMEWHAT LACKING WITH NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER
SRN MS VALLEY EXITING INTO THE SRN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AT
AROUND 850 MB.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT TUESDAY WEDNESDAY

BOTH NAM/GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT NEXT 12-36 HOURS ON MOST OF
MAIN FEATURES. SHORT TERM FORECASTER DELAYED ONSET OF ORGANIZED AND
HIGHER CHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER WEST TONIGHT UNTIL AFTER SUNSET
WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER 06 UTC WITH THINKING
TIMING WISE GFS LOOKED THE BEST. WILL HAVE CHANCE FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION AS SFC TROF/FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN IOWA WITH LOW TO
MODERATE CAPE...WEAK VALUES IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AND BULK SHEAR ABOVE
40 KTS MAINLY POST FRONTAL.  SO BEST SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMICS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY MISPLACED FOR A BETTER CASE SCENARIO FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER. HOWEVER SLIGHT RISK EXTENDS TO NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR
THROUGH 12Z. FOR TUESDAY...WEAK 850 MB THERMAL RIDGING WITH +10 TO
+12C AIR...AND EVEN WITH RELATIVELY COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES BUMP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S EASILY WITH A FAIRLY
UNIFORM AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL IOWA. USED THE PREFERRED GFS WITH THE
40 KM RESOLUTION  TOMORROW FOR PCPN/QPF FIELDS AND ADJUSTED AND WILL
BUMP TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER AS DAYS LIKE THIS ARE OUR
TYPICAL TEMPERATURE BUST DAY.

LIKE THE GFSMOS GRID FOR PCPN TOMORROW NIGHT AS IT SEEMS TO REFLECT
WELL THE PCPN FIELDS OF BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...BUT THINK THE GFS
OVERDOES THE PCPN DURING THE DAY WED AS NAM AND GFS HAVE DIFFERENCES
ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF POST FRONTAL H5 SHORTWAVES. WILL MAKE NO
CHANGE TO WEDNESDAY EARLY DAY FORECAST AS MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN MODEL
TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS HOWEVER WILL BLEND CURRENT AFTERNOON
FORECAST WITH THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE AFTERNOON AND SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE FOR ISOLD THUNDER NORTH TO SOUTH AS SHOWALTERS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY/WEAKLY UNSTABLE PER GFS IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY (DAYS 3-7)

GFS/EURO/UKMET ALL IN GENERALLY VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH 72 HOURS
WITH POLAR VORTEX RETROGRADING FROM QUEBEC TO HUDSON BAY. BOTH
ECMWF/GFS DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  BY THURSDAY WHICH MEANDERS  THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY THE WEEKEND AND DOES BATTLES WITH THE  BLOCKING HIGH WHICH
BECOMES SET UP OVER EASTERN CANADA BY THIS TIME. AS A
RESULT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES  REFLECTED
IN THE TEMPERATURES  AND PCPN GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST IN THE LOW 60S ON DAY 4 WHERE MORE COOL ADVECTION IS LIKELY
TO BE TAKING PLACE...TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S BY WEEKS END.

ADDED ADJUSTED HPC GUIDANCE GRIDS TO DAY 6 (SUNDAY) WITH BOTH MODELS
GIVING BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF STATE. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE HERE THUS THE LOW POPS HOWEVER THE GFS DEPICTS AND TO A
SLIGHT DEGREE THE ECMWF AS WELL THE FORECAST  AREA ON THE NORTHSIDE
OF A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY INVOF MO RIVER VALLEY AND BEING BETWEEN THIS
FEATURE AND UPPER LOW TO NORTHEAST FELT POPS WERE WARRANTED.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

RUSSELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
633 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2006

IAZ023>028-033>039-044>049-057>060-070>072-081-082-092-092345-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-CASS-ADAIR-
MADISON-ADAMS-UNION-TAYLOR-
633 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA
NORTHWEST OF A WATERLOO TO BEDFORD LINE AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 18.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING.  THE
PRIMARY THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 80 MPH. THE MAIN THREAT TIME IS BETWEEN 6 PM
AND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON TUESDAY...MAINLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

IAZ050-061-062-073>075-083>086-093>097-092345-
TAMA-JASPER-POWESHIEK-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-
WAPELLO-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
633 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA
SOUTHEAST OF A WATERLOO TO BEDFORD LINE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 10 PM. ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF NICKELS AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THE MAIN THREAT
TIME IS BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON TUESDAY...MAINLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

IAZ004>007-015>017-092345-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
633 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 18.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING.
THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THE MAIN THREAT TIME IS BETWEEN 6 PM
AND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

RUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
524 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 PM     HAIL             7 E NORTHWOOD           43.44N 93.08W
05/08/2006  E0.75 INCH       WORTH              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DEROY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
528 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             10 ENE NORTHWOOD        43.48N 93.02W
05/08/2006  M1.00 INCH       MITCHELL           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DEROY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
536 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             7 ENE NORTHWOOD         43.48N 93.09W
05/08/2006  M1.00 INCH       WORTH              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DEROY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
653 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             15 N GREENFIELD         41.52N 94.46W
05/08/2006  E1.00 INCH       GUTHRIE            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED BY ADAIR COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT. QUARTER SIZE
            HAIL ALONG INTERSTATE 80 AT MILE MARKER 88.

&&

RVACHALE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
655 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 PM     HAIL             1 S STUART              41.49N 94.32W
05/08/2006  M0.88 INCH       ADAIR              IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DEROY