Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
300 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MARCH OF UPPER LOW IS FAIRLY WELL LOCKED NOW MODEL WISE AS THE SYS
MOVES SLOLY ACRS SRN MN THRU THU AND FRI. DVLPG IMPRESSIVE LATE
SEASON SNOW STORM SHOULD REALLY DUMP THE SNOW ACRS THE BLACK HILS AS
NW WNDS ARE HITTING 56KTS NOW IN FAR NWRN SD ON THE SFC. IN THE
SHORTER TERM...STILL LOOKING FOR SOME ELEVATED STORMS TO GO IN FAR
SRN IA LATE THIS AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
HAIL AND WIND. THE RUC AND NAM PUSH A NOSE OF 1-2K CAPE BY 00Z INVOF
LWD FOR 3-4HR WINDOW OF STORMS. A FEW MORE HOURS OF DESTABILIZATION
IS STILL NEEDED HOWEVER TO REALIZE THE CAPE. VSB IMAGERY HAS DECENT
WAVE CLD DVLPMT IN THE LOWER STABLE LAYER NOW. ACTION SHOULD SWEEP
QUICKLY EWD LEAVING THE CWA PCPN FREE BY MRNG. UPPER LOW WL THEN
GRDLY SPREAD SML PCPN CHCS ACRS THE NRN TIER FM W TO E BEGINNING
LATE TMR WITH THE BEST PCPN CHCS LATE THURSDAY. THE UPR LOW SHOULD
BE DEPARTING THE AREA ON FRI WITH ESSENTIALLY A DRY FCST FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE UPR SYS WL PULL COOLER AIR SWD IN IA THRU THE WEEKEND
WITH LOWS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

MYERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
416 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044-045-192130-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-
416 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IOWA...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A DENISON TO WEBSTER CITY TO WATERLOO LINE.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED...NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA.
ALTHOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

IAZ046>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-192130-
GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-
JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-
UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
416 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IOWA...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN AUDUBON TO BOONE TO
MARSHALLTOWN LINE.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
IOWA...MAINLY FROM 6 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED EARLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

STEINBUGL