Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 160155
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
855 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

IAC029-160215-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0112.000000T0000Z-060416T0215Z/
CASS IA-
855 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN CASS
COUNTY UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

AT 851 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
NORTHEAST OF ATLANTIC...OR 67 MILES SOUTHEAST OF IDA GROVE...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHERN CASS COUNTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING.
ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY
AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A
BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE
TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT SUNDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4129 9515 4128 9471 4151 9471 4150 9516

$$

VACHALEK

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 160205
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
905 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

IAC029-160215-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0112.000000T0000Z-060416T0215Z/
CASS IA-
905 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN CASS COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

AT 904 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE EITHER WEAKENED OR
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO
LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

IF SEVERE WEATHER WAS OBSERVED...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN DES MOINES AT 1-800-759-9276.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT SUNDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4129 9515 4128 9471 4151 9471 4150 9516

$$

VACHALEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
330 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MON

INITIAL FORECAST ISSUES POINT TOWARDS PENDING SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN
EPISODE. DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE OVER PLAINS WITH PLENTY OF
THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC SUPPORT FOR TORNADOES SOUTHWEST EARLY
THIS EVENING AS WARM FRONT LIFTS TO A KVTN TO KICL TO KIRK LINE BY
02 UTC ON BOTH NAM/GFS. LCLS BELOW 2000FT...0-1KM SHEAR IN THE 25 TO
35 KT RANGE ALL PUSHING INTO SW IOWA DURING THE MID EVENING SHOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS INITIALLY AND BECOMING
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ACCORDING TO LAST RUC FORECAST INTO CENTRAL
IA BY 03Z. GOOD POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN AS RAIN EFFICIENCY
WILL BECOME HIGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER AN INCH AND A
HALF AND WARM CLOUD LAYERS QUICKLY BECOMING GREATER THAN 9000FT.
SAVING GRACE RAINFALL WISE TO SOME EXTENT WILL BE QUICK MOVEMENT OF
INITIAL STORMS WITHOUT MULTIPLE ROUND EXPECTED HOWEVER WITH SUCH
HIGH EFFICIENCIES AND DEFORMATION ZONE CONSIDERATIONS AS WELL AND
GFS/NAM
QPF IN 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE OVER NORTH AND AGGRAVATED RIVER LEVELS WILL
BE ISSUING FLOOD WATCH NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 AS OF 3 UTC (10PM). WILL
ALSO BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT WITH GRADIENT WINDS
INCREASING IN THE WARM SECTOR.

FOR TOMORROW...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WX CONTINUES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. MIGHT SEE DESTABILIZATION AGAIN IN THE
LATE MORNING AFTERNOON AS GOOD QG-FORCING/THETA-E CONVERGENCE STILL
PRESENT AND SOME DOWNDRAFT CAPE/LOW SFC CIN IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A FEW LOCALIZED MARGINAL SEVERE WIND STORMS IN
THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA.
SURFACE/UPPER LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE SUNDAY WITH BUILDING
500 MB HEIGHTS. LOW SHIFTS EAST AND NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
INCREASING.

.LONG TERM...MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI

SHARP MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST BY LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY SETTING UP MORE OF A DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW FOR HEIGHT
FALLS/FRONTOGENESIS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION/700MB OMEGA ALL SUMMED UP
FOR A BROAD AREA OF Q-G FORCING OVER THE STATE BEGINNING  LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH NAM80/GFS40 IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON THE MASS FIELDS AT THIS TIME.  EXTRAPOLATION OF GFS
INTO WEDNESDAY HAS UPPER OPEN WAVE ACROSS WY CATCHING UP AND CLOSING
OFF WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE DAKOTA WHICH WILL LEAVE AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR.

ADDED MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY WITH UPPER LOW SHIFTING ACROSS MINNESOTA HOWEVER NO MENTION
OF THUNDER AS APPEARS SHOWALTERS AND K INDICES WOULD NOT SUPPORT IT.
IN ADDITION TO FARTHER OUT PERIODS WARMED MIN TEMPS ON SAT/SUN GIVEN
RETREATING UPPER LOW WITH LIKELIHOOD OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS ON BACK
AND SUBSIDENT SIDE OF UPPER LOW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

...FLOOD WATCH 10 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
POCAHONTAS TO WATERLOO LINE.

...WIND ADVISORY 4 PM SATURDAY THROUGH 4 AM SUNDAY ALL OF FORECAST
AREA...

&&

BOKSA/RUSSELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
425 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

IAZ044>046-057>059-070>073-081>084-092>095-162130-
CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-
WARREN-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
425 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA
GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM SAC CITY TO ADEL TO CORYDON.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SOUTHEAST WIND WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO SPEEDS OF 25 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST AFTER 6 PM. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP
TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH. SOME STORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT IS TO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY AFTER 6 PM. SPOTTERS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR STORMS MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

IAZ023-024-033>037-047>050-060>062-074-075-085-086-096-097-162130-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-BOONE-
STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-MARION-MAHASKA-MONROE-
WAPELLO-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
425 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM POCAHONTAS TO DES MOINES
TO CENTERVILLE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SOUTHEAST WIND WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING TO SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 7 PM. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO
70 MPH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM BEFORE
10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
THESE STORMS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT IS TO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS EVENING AFTER 7 PM. SPOTTERS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STORMS MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

IAZ004>007-015>017-025>028-038-039-162130-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-
425 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SOUTHEAST WIND WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING TO SPEEDS OF 25 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST AFTER 9 PM. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP
TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RAINFALL OF AN
INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE A FLOOD THREAT TO
ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
THESE STORMS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT IS TO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS EVENING AFTER 9 PM. SPOTTERS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STORMS MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

FAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
624 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG E GRIMES                41.66N 93.79W
04/15/2006                   POLK               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAILER DOOR TORN OFF

&&

DEROY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
833 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             1 NW GRISWOLD           41.25N 95.16W
04/15/2006  E0.88 INCH       CASS               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DEROY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
834 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     HAIL             1 N LEWIS               41.32N 95.08W
04/15/2006  E1.00 INCH       CASS               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
836 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     HAIL             2 W LEWIS               41.31N 95.12W
04/15/2006  E1.00 INCH       CASS               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

STEACHOU