Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 020853
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
253 AM CST MON JAN 2 2006

IAC053-020915-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060102T0915Z/
DECATUR IA-
253 AM CST MON JAN 2 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN
DECATUR COUNTY UNTIL 315 AM CST...

AT 249 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF LEON...OR 59 MILES SOUTH OF DES MOINES...
AND MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
  NEAR GARDEN GROVE BY 310 AM CST.
  NEAR LE ROY BY 315 AM CST.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE
TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4057 9375 4058 9356 4090 9358 4087 9387

$$

FORSTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
305 PM CST SUN JAN 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHTS EVENT IS UNDERWAY TO OUR NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING.  PRECIP TYPE REMAINS THE MAJOR
HEADACHE.  THERE IS A LOT OF WARM AIR THAT WILL BE BROUGHT IN WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS RAIN BUT WHERE
THE FLOW HAS A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT (I.E. EST AND POINTS NORTH
AND WEST) THE SOUNDINGS INDICATE COOLER AIR ALOFT SO FREEZING RAIN
WILL START MUCH EARLIER BUT ALSO SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THE
COLUMN CONTINUES TO SATURATE AND COOL.  SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN THROUGH THE EVENT.  TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MIX FAR
NORTH WE HAVE CHANGED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY.  FURTHER SOUTH THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL REMAIN AS
SUCH THOUGH SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIX WITH SLEET MID MORNING MONDAY.
OVERALL TREND OF THE FORECAST WAS GOOD SO LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO
TIMING AND JUST SOME TWEAKING TO PRECIP TYPE.  ONE CHANGE OF
NOTE...THE GFS DOES BUILD A RIDGE INTO US LATE MONDAY SO I HAVE
CLEARED PRECIP OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL A
LITTLE QUICKER.  I LEFT CHANCE POPS ONLY IN THE FAR EAST.  THE OTHER
THING TO WATCH IS THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT FROM KS INTO NRN MO
AND ADVECT 50+ DEWPOINTS AND QUITE UNSTABLE AIR INTO SOUTHERN/
SOUTHEAST IOWA.  I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THUNDER IN THOSE
AREAS LATER TONIGHT.  THE MORNING ISSUANCE HAD THE MENTION OF
THUNDER AND WE WILL LEAVE THAT IN OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

BEYOND MONDAY...RIDGING TAKES PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER NICELY ON TUESDAY WITH MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND MID 30S
FAR NORTH.  THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  CURRENT TRENDS SHOW THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTING FURTHER NORTH AND THE BEST LIFT AND VORTICITY
SHOULD STAY OVER NORTHERN IOWA.  I DID NOT MAKE LARGE CHANGES TO
THAT PERIOD YET BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT NORTHERN IOWA WILL SEE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW AS ROCKY MOUNTAIN RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SPILLS
COLD AIR INTO THE CWA.  AFTER THAT THE RIDGE GRADUALLY WORKS INTO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MODERATING TEMPS SOME.  A WEAK AND
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE FLATTENS THE RIDGE A BIT FOR SUNDAY AND
BRINGS A CHANCE AGAIN FOR SNOW LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 18 FROM 9 PM TONIGHT THROUGH NOON MONDAY.  FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR FROM 6 AM TO
NOON MONDAY.

&&

FAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1115 PM CST SUN JAN 1 2006

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>047-030515-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-
1115 PM CST SUN JAN 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
IOWA...GENERALLY NORTH OF A DENISON TO BOONE TO WATERLOO LINE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. A FEW AREAS OF
FREEZING RAIN OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST SLOWLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ICE ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT WILL BE ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
POCAHONTAS...TO BRITT...TO NORTHWOOD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
MORNING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN FAR NORTHWEST IOWA WILL BE
SLEET AND SNOW...WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FURTHER SOUTH FROM
HIGHWAY 3 TO HIGHWAY 20. AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER FAR NORTHWEST
IOWA WILL AVERAGE AN INCH OR LESS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED...HOWEVER REPORTS OF ICE AND
SLEET ACCUMULATION WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

IAZ048>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-030515-
STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-
CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-
MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
1115 PM CST SUN JAN 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
IOWA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A DENISON TO BOONE TO WATERLOO LINE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.