Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WGUS73 KDMX 020337
FFSDMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1035 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2006


IAC109-147-020930-
KOSSUTH IA-PALO ALTO IA-
1035 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOSSUTH AND PALO ALTO
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM CDT...

AT 1030 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM 
SOUTHEAST PALO ALTO INTO CENTRAL KOSSUTH COUNTY...AND ACROSS 
NORTHERN KOSSUTH COUNTY. KOSSUTH EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS REPORTED 
WATER OVER COUNTY ROAD 169. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE 
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
WARNED AREA. RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING
INCLUDE...ALGONA...BANCROFT AND EMMETSBURG.

THIS FLASH FLOOD WARNING REPLACES THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD 
ADVISORIES PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR KOSSUTH AND PALO ALTO COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 4348 9398 4293 9398 4294 9491 4324 9490
      4323 9444 4349 9444

$$

KINNEY

000 
WGUS73 KDMX 020442
FFSDMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1142 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2006

IAC109-147-020930-
KOSSUTH IA-PALO ALTO IA-
1142 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOSSUTH AND PALO ALTO
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM CDT...

AT 1135 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SO 
FAR ALONG A SWATH FROM SOUTHWEST TO EAST CENTRAL KOSSUTH 
COUNTY...AND 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS IN FAR NORTHERN KOSSUTH COUNTY. A 
PORTION OF NORTHWEST PALO ALTO COUNTY HAS RECEIVED AROUND 2 TO 3 
INCHES.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO 
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING 
INCLUDE...ALGONA...BANCROFT AND EMMETSBURG.

AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE 
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUING.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 4348 9398 4293 9398 4294 9491 4324 9490
      4323 9444 4349 9444

$$

KINNEY

000 
WGUS73 KDMX 020546
FFSDMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1243 AM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

IAC109-147-020930-
KOSSUTH IA-PALO ALTO IA-
1243 AM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOSSUTH AND PALO ALTO
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM CDT...

AT 1239 AM CDT...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY 
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
WARNED AREA. RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING
INCLUDE...ALGONA...BANCROFT AND EMMETSBURG.

SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED AROUND 5 INCHES OF RAIN IN AND AROUND ALGONA 
AREA AS WELL AS OTHER PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.  NO REPORTS HAVE BEEN 
RECEIVED IN THE LAST HOUR FROM PALO ALTO COUNTY.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

LAT...LON 4348 9398 4293 9398 4294 9491 4324 9490
      4323 9444 4349 9444

$$

FORSTER

000 
WGUS73 KDMX 020707
FFSDMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
205 AM CDT WED AUG 2 2006


IAC109-147-020930-
KOSSUTH IA-PALO ALTO IA-
205 AM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOSSUTH AND PALO ALTO
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM CDT...

AT 203 AM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY 
RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL OF 
3 TO 5 OR MORE INCHES.  HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE 
COUNTIES ADDING TO RAINFALL TOTALS.

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
WARNED AREA. RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING
INCLUDE...ALGONA...BANCROFT AND EMMETSBURG.


DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

LAT...LON 4348 9398 4293 9398 4294 9491 4324 9490
      4323 9444 4349 9444

$$

FORSTER

000 
WGUS73 KDMX 020837
FFSDMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
335 AM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

IAC109-147-020930-
KOSSUTH IA-PALO ALTO IA-
335 AM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOSSUTH AND PALO ALTO
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM CDT...

AT 331 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE 
WARNED AREA.  DOPPLER RADAR HAD ESTIMATED 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN 
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA WITH SPOTTER REPORTS OF IN EXCESS OF 5 
INCHES. 

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FLASH 
FLOODING. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... 
ALGONA...PLOVER AND TITONKA.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 4348 9398 4293 9398 4294 9491 4324 9490
      4323 9444 4349 9444

$$

COGIL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
310 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...

COMPLICATED SFC CONDITIONS THIS AM WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS
SE COLORADO TO KONL TO KMSP TO KIWD (IRONWOOD MI) LINE. WEAK LOW HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER NW KANSAS WITH SECONDARY WARM
FRONT NOW FORMING OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA IN RESPONSE TO AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF IOWA. AS FOR REMAINING HEAT
EVENT...HEAT ADV IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CWA WILL EXPIRE
THIS EVENING AS PLANNED AS NORTHERN PORTIONS TRIMMED SIGNIFICANTLY
THIS MORNING WITH ONSET OF CONVECTION. BREAK IN HEAT IN THE FORECAST
FOR WED AND BEYOND...THOUGH TEMPS CREEP BACK UP BY THE WEEKEND. TDS
REMAIN HIGH OVER THE REGION WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE OVER TO
H850MB ON PROGGED SOUNDINGS...THOUGH LAPS SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING
NEARLY SATURATED TO H200 MB FAR NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. H700
SHOWS WEAK IMPULSE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION MOVING
THROUGH 40KT FLOW IN FAR WESTERN IA. SECOND MAXIMUM AND MAIN WAVE
BACK IN TX PANHANDLE AND SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST BY TNT AND TRIGGER
EXPECTED CONVECTIVE EVENT LATER TODAY.

FOCUS OF FCST TURNS NOW FROM HEAT TO POTENTIAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH EAST WITH LLJ STILL FIRING ALONG
WESTERN EDGES OF CWA ATTM. WITH SLOWLY MOVING FRONT TNT AND
POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING CELLS TOWARD 06Z WITH HIGH PWATS. LAST
NIGHTS SPECIAL 00Z RUN OF THE WRF FROM HAS CONVECTION DEVELOPING
NORTH/WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVN HOURS. MODELS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH HIGHEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER FAR NC
IOWA THEN SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MN BY AM HOURS. QPF AMTS AND
PLACEMENT DIFFER WITH GFS BEING THE MOST EXCESSIVE SOLN WITH 3-5
INCH AMTS NORTH. NAM/WRF RUNS SHOWING LESS...BUT STILL IMPRESSIVE
1-3 INCH AMTS. AM LEANING TOWARD 1-3 INCH AS PER CURRENT FCST.
CURRENTLY THE GFS MOST RESEMBLES THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION.
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS THE MESO BOUNDARY SET UP OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL COUNTIES. ACCAS VERY PREVALENT AS OF 130 PM AT THE WFO THIS
AFTERNOON. IF CONVECTION WORKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING... A
MORE SOUTHERLY PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST QPF MAY BE NEEDED AS AN UPDATE
THIS EVENING. WED STILL IN QUESTION AS GFS CONTINUES TO HINT AT
MOISTURE DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AS FRONT
STRETCHED OUT AND DROPS SOUTH...THEN STORMS REFIRING ALONG BOUNDARY
FAR SOUTH AND INTO MISSOURI. NAM NOT AS STRONG WITH OVERALL DYNAMICS
TONIGHT OR AGGRESSIVE WITH TIME AND HAS PM REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN REGIONS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. PREFER THE NAM SOLN WHICH
IS SIMILAR TO THE EURO/GEM...WITH GEM EVEN SLOWER FOR THE PM HOURS
WED INTO THURS AFTERNOON. NAM DEVELOPS A NICE DEF ZONE THURSDAY
WHICH MAY PROLONG THE PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR THE DAY.

IN THE LATER PERIODS...WILL BE LOOKING AT A MORE ZONAL FLOW
WITH SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WESTERLY ENERGY
TRANSLATING EAST IN THE FLOW. TIMING OF FEATURES WILL BE MOST
CHALLENGING. AT PRESENT...WEAK WAVE SUGGESTED AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT
OVER REGION WITH MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST 20 POPS GOING FORWARD WITH CHANCE UPDATES
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LONGER OUT...GEM/GFS HINTING AT
RETURN OF BUILDING RIDGE AS WEEK PROGRESSES...JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FAIR.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT ALONG
AND N OF MASON CITY-FORT DODGE-SAC CITY LINE. HEAT ADV LEFT TO
EXPIRE SE AT 00Z.

&&

REV/MYERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
531 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2006

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>025-033>035-021100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-
531 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVY RAIN TO
FALL WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO BE SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODING.

IAZ026>028-036>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-021100-
FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-
CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-
POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-
ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-
WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
531 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A CRESTON TO MONTEZUMA LINE. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IOWA. SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT MAY BE SEVERE
WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT LIKELY OVERNIGHT. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
920 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNE AYRSHIRE          43.05N 94.83W
08/01/2006  E60 MPH          PALO ALTO          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RVACHALE