Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
304 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STEADILY INCREASED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL.

CAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR MINNESOTA
COUNTIES...WITH MUCAPE A BIT HIGHER IN FAR NORTHWEST MN. DEEP
SHEAR IS LACKING OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA SO FAR...WITH ALL BUT
KOOCHICHING COUNTY EXPERIENCING SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KT. RUC
FORECASTS DEEP SHEAR TO INCREASE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH...INCREASING
TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS CASS...AND ITASCA COUNTIES BY 23Z.

STORMS WERE FIRING DUE TO COOLING ALOFT...WITH LIFT PROVIDED BY A STRONG
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MORE STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AN WEAK TROUGH OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY IN
WISCONSIN...DOWN TO BURNETT COUNTY. AN INTENSE SMALL STORM
PRODUCED PEA SIZE HAIL AND SOME GUSTY WINDS JUST SOUTH OF
SUPERIOR EARLIER.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL WILL BE OVER OUR MUCH OF
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY...AND
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT...AND THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY REPLACE THE UPPER TROUGH AND PROVIDE DRYING.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS HAVE HAD SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.POINT FORECAST TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  69  51  72 /  50  50  40  20
INL  49  72  46  76 /  50  30  20  10
BRD  53  73  48  76 /  50  30  20  10
HYR  53  73  51  75 /  50  60  40  30
ASX  51  72  50  72 /  50  60  40  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

MELDE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1058 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

LSZ121-140>148-162-MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-
006>009-271230-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI
TO GRAND PORTAGE MN-KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-
NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-
SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-
SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-
SOUTHERN AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-
ASHLAND-IRON-BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
1058 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE
THIS MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS KOOCHICHING...ITASCA AND NORTHERN
SAINT LOUIS COUNTIES...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE STORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON....ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

MELDE

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