Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1108 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STRONG
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING. EXPECT STRONG STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE CRITERIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 318 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006)

DISCUSSION...
TROF ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL CONT TO AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND TODAY AND TNT.

SERIES OF EMBEDDED S/WV EMBEDDED IN THE TROF WILL MOVE THRU NEXT
24HRS.NEXT ONE TO BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO REGION EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR FROM OVR LK WINNIPEG THOURGH NORTH DAKOTA...WITH SFC
TROF JUST ENTERING NWRN MN. ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP JUST AHEAD
OF THE TROF IN CONVERGENCE AREA. THIS TROF WILL MOVE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF SFC CONVERGENCE ACROSS
NWRN WI IN SRN TIER OF CWA WHICH COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. RATHER BROADBRUSHED THE PRECIP AREA FOR
THE NORTHLAND TODAY SINCE WE HAVE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED STORMS
ALMOST ANYWEHRE/ANYTIME TODAY. UPPER JET SITUATED PRACTICALLY
OVERHEAD...AIDING IN LOLVL CONVERGENCE...AND ANY DAY-TIME HEATING
COULD SET OFF TSTMS IN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS OF -2 TO -6 LIS. BEST
CAPES WILL BE IN NWRN WI. SEE SWODY1 FROM SPC TO SEE DISCUSSION
FOR SLIGHT RISK SVR THREAT IN NWRN WI.

CANADIAN COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH NE MN THIS EVENING...THEN THRU
NWRN WI OVERNIGHT. AGAIN...SUPPORT FRM S/WV WL KEEP THREAT OF
TSTMS GOING. THIS S/WV EXITS THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING. MAY SEE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SRN CWA WITH THE COLD FROPA.

EXPECT A BREEZY DAY TODAY WITH WINDS THROUGH 850 MB OF 25 TO 35
KTS MIXING DOWN.

THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS, BUT GENERAL
PATTERN IN AGREEMENT.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

LILES/CLC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1116 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

LSZ121-140>148-162-MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-
006>009-221245-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI
TO GRAND PORTAGE MN-KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-
NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-
SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-
SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-
SOUTHERN AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-
ASHLAND-IRON-BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
1116 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS EVENING OVER THE
ARROWHEAD REGION OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AND
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ON
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

LILES

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